The IMF has issued a warning that it is revising its global economic growth forecasts downward, and inflation risks are on the rise.
If the war in the Middle East continues, the world could be pushed toward recession. For Taiwan, this is not some distant news story; its effects are borne out materially in the prices of oil, electricity, shipping and food.
Being heavily reliant on energy imports, any fluctuation in the situation ultimately hits the wallets of ordinary Taiwanese. For this reason, in facing overseas wars and cross-strait relations, what Taiwan needs most is not emotional mobilization, but pragmatic risk management and sound decisionmaking.
Countries all over the world are dealing with the unstable supply and rising prices of energy and other commodities.
If Taiwan continues to squander energy over endless partisan debate and politicizes bread-and-butter issues, it would only result in people growing more anxious and the country growing more fragile. This is especially true of the cross-strait situation. A steady approach means protecting democratic institutions and autonomy while avoiding confrontation risks and errors of judgement, thereby maintaining a controlled and predictable environment.
Once tensions rise, it is not only national security that is affected, but also investor confidence, the financial markets, energy supplies and the cost of living. To most people, what matters most is not which side has the louder voice, but whether their lives are stable, jobs are secure and prices remain under control.
Energy policy, therefore, must be more than tokenistic. Being highly reliant on fuel imports, Taiwan cannot put all its eggs in one basket.
Renewables must continue to be rolled out, and energy conservation, storage and grid resilience must be strengthened.
The nuclear question, meanwhile, can no longer be treated as taboo. Be it on issues of plant service extensions, re-openings, or the deployment of new technologies, let the debate come back to professional assessments of safety, costs and stability of energy supply, followed swiftly by review and public discussion. Viable options need not be ruled out, while those deemed unworkable must be properly explained.
Similarly, in dealing with fuel, electricity and consumer price pressures, long-term subsidies are not necessarily the best policy. Short-term relief is, of course, necessary, but normalizing subsidization only prolongs the pressure, leaving ordinary citizens to foot the bill.
The best approach is to treat the problem directly, using precise and targeted support measures for vulnerable households and industries.
At the same time, energy efficiency must be increased, pricing mechanisms improved and energy diversification expedited. Effective solutions must address the root cause — throwing money around only kicks the can further down the road.
Although the outlook from the IMF is gloomy, Taiwan still has the momentum for growth. That should not be wasted. If stable energy, prices and supply can be prioritized and internal friction reduced while investments are made in economic resilience and livelihood protections, people would be able to feel that the government is solving problems rather than creating them.
What ordinary people want is simple: no war, no energy shortages, no out-of-control prices and for their lives not to get more difficult with each passing day. The international situation might be out of our hands, but Taiwan can still control its own choices.
We must focus on public priorities, ending internal strife and pragmatically handling cross-strait and energy issues. Uniting to support the economy is the only way to ensure stable livelihoods and to walk the long road ahead.
Chen Ching-yun is a former director of the Legislative Yuan’s Bureau of Legal Affairs.
Translated by Gilda Knox Streader
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