US President Donald Trump’s bid to block Iran from using the Strait of Hormuz chokes a key Chinese energy supply and risks a showdown with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) a month before the two leaders are set to meet in Beijing.
Xi broke his near seven-week silence over the Iran war on Tuesday, warning the world order is “crumbling into disarray,” while pledging to play a “constructive role” in the Middle East. Ramping up its own rhetoric, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs blasted Trump’s naval blockade imposed this week as “dangerous and irresponsible.”
The stronger language out of Beijing underscores how Trump’s war in the Middle East is testing a fragile detente between the world’s biggest economies. US threats to intercept, divert or capture ships violating its blockade risks a confrontation between Chinese aligned vessels and US Navy ships, potentially putting Beijing in a difficult spot even if it wants to avoid directly challenging the blockade.
Illustration: Mountain People
The fate of one such vessel, a US-sanctioned tanker linked to China, but unaffiliated with the government, showed the potential risks of miscalculation. That ship — the Rich Starry — sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday before appearing to U-turn as it entered the Gulf of Oman, tracking data showed.
“If the US seeks to use this badly bungled war to harm China’s interests, I believe China has many cards to play that would ensure the US gains far less than it loses,” Hu Xijin (胡錫進), former editor-in-chief of Chinese nationalist tabloid Global Times, wrote in a blog post.
So far, there is no sign that Trump’s visit to Beijing planned for next month would be delayed. On Tuesday, he met with US Ambassador to China David Perdue to prepare for the trip, which would be the first to the nation by a US president since he last visited in 2017.
However, the mood is darkening. US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent has blasted China as an unreliable partner to the world by “hoarding” oil, while US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer last week warned that Beijing’s ties with Iran were complicating the relationship.
Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun (郭嘉昆) said the two nations have “maintained communications” over Trump’s visit.
Trump has also threatened 50 percent tariffs on countries arming Tehran, after reports China was planning to give its longtime diplomatic friend Iran anti-missile weapons — claims Beijing called a “smear” campaign. While China generally avoids supplying weapons to overseas wars, it has provided Russia with dual-use components.
Any decision to impose tariffs or otherwise hurt China’s interests threatens to upend a one-year truce — a move that would almost certainly prompt China to again retaliate by cutting off rare earths. Beijing controls about 90 percent of permanent magnets made with the minerals crucial to US manufacturing. Last year, China imposed sweeping export controls on those metals to counter Trump’s tariffs and could quickly tighten restrictions.
As the conflict drags, it is also possible Trump hopes hitting China’s oil imports would encourage Beijing to pressure Tehran to come to the table after peace talks last week in Pakistan ended in failure, Bloomberg Economics chief geoeconomics analyst Jennifer Welch said. The US and Iran are looking to arrange a second round of negotiations before the ceasefire expires.
“The risk, if that is Trump’s plan, is that China cushions higher oil costs at home and strikes back with its own sanctions,” Welch said.
China could also hit back by restricting soy bean purchases, broad imports of which fell to a one-year low in the month after the war began.
However, for some in Beijing, Trump’s latest moves to pressure China suggest he is boxed in by the war in Iran.
“The US is passing the bucks onto China as it is incapable of reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” former Chinese diplomat and Renmin University Institute of International Affairs director Wang Yiwei (王義桅) said. “When Washington can’t win the war with Iran, it blames Beijing.”
China’s leader is welcoming a host of dignitaries in Beijing this week, as he portrays China as a force for stability to countries around the world responding to an energy crisis.
Xi pledged to play a “constructive role” in the Middle East during a meeting with Abu Dhabi’s crown prince — widely seen as the next leader of the United Arab Emirates. He also sat down with Russia’s top diplomat Sergey Lavrov and Vietnamese President To Lam.
While China has emerged as among the most resilient Asian economies, thanks to its vast oil reserves and a robust renewable energy sector, the US blockade of Hormuz has broader implications about freedom of navigation.
“China has long feared that its access to energy might be blocked at the Strait of Malacca, especially by the US in the context of a war,” Defense Priorities senior fellow and military analysis director Jennifer Kavanagh said.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto last week touted his country’s leverage over that shipping artery, highlighting in a speech that about 70 percent of East Asia’s energy and trade passes through Indonesian waters.
“Do we even realize how important Indonesia is?” he said.
The free passage of vessels through choke points such as Hormuz and the Strait of Malacca is protected under principles laid out in the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. While the US never ratified the treaty, it played a key role in the document’s drafting and its almost 300-ship navy has served as chief enforcer of the rules.
One Chinese academic warned of dangerous precedents being set in global shipping, saying even Iran’s use of the yuan for Hormuz toll payments should not be seen as a win for China, given the risk of secondary sanctions. The US Department of the Treasury had warned that it is ready to take actions against foreign financial institutions that support Iran.
“From the perspective of international law and the grand narrative of great power competition, China’s optimal strategy in the Hormuz crisis is by no means to maximize local renminbi settlement gains,” Southwest University of Political Science and Law international law academic Ye Yan (袁野) wrote in a journal article.
With weeks to go until Trump’s trip to Beijing, much uncertainty remains over what would be on the agenda — and how the world would look.
Wang said Trump already delayed his meeting to game the Iran war.
“All these gambits are aimed at serving his negotiations,” he said. “Trump had hoped to visit China as a winner of the war, but now the war has become his Waterloo.”
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