The international situation has seen rapidly escalating levels of risk, with conflict striking the Middle East again. Military clashes between the US and Iran have increased since the former launched an offensive with Israel on Feb. 28 and the possibility of a widening conflict and uncertainty in global energy supplies and key shipping routes looms large. For Taiwan, which is highly dependent on fuel imports and foreign trade, this stress test directly threatens national security and economic stability.
As such, Taiwan must seize the moment to plan for the future: advancing energy diversification, bolstering strategic reserves and increasing critical infrastructure protections. A pragmatic strategy should be adopted between green and nuclear energy, and a flexible power distribution and an adjustable adaptation mechanism should be established. Only then could the foundations of national security and economic operations be stabilized in an unpredictable environment and overall resilience enhanced.
It seems unlikely that the situation could be fully resolved in the short term. As a key global energy transportation hub, instability in the region has unavoidable knock-on effects from which Taiwan would find it difficult to extricate itself.
In terms of energy structure, although Taiwan has steadily reduced its dependency on oil from the Middle East, about 60 percent of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are still sourced from the region. Overall, LNG accounts for half of Taiwan’s total energy supply. As such, disruptions to supply and price fluctuations directly impact energy stability. Critically, while Taiwan has 100 days of oil reserves, LNG reserves stand at just 11 days — a serious vulnerability in a key component of the energy system.
In modern warfare, command and combat systems are highly dependent on stable power supplies, making energy a core national security issue. Unstable natural gas supplies, therefore, amount to a fissure in the defense system. This is why in addition to expanding diversified procurement sources, boosting reserved capacities and strengthening facility protections are urgent priorities. With this, nuclear power should once again be carefully evaluated for wartime power provisions and overall security purposes.
Economic considerations should not be overlooked. With no resolution to the conflict, the Strait of Hormuz might remain unstable for an extended period, making rising oil prices not a temporary fluctuation, but structural. This would be reflected in production costs and inflationary pressures, ultimately hitting consumers and industry alike. Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) on Thursday last week proposed “expanding the general budget to cope with domestic and international shock,” saying that Taiwan has entered a critical phase in dealing with external risks. The ruling and opposition parties should work together to build a consensus and weather the storm.
The Middle East conflict is not only an external pressure, but also a warning: Geopolitical conflicts quickly translate into domestic risks. At such times, society must form a stable base of support, allowing the government room to respond to a changing situation. The legislature should avoid delays and confrontation and focus on shared responsibility.
Only through cooperation between the executive and legislative branches, together with broad societal support, can Taiwan maintain its footing amid a turbulent environment and ensure both security and development.
Ma Chun-wei is an assistant professor at Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.
Translated by Gilda Knox Streader
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