As the international order shifts from one of principles to power, the most fatal error for political leaders is not holding differing positions, but misjudging reality.
This year, the world is undergoing a rapid restructuring. US President Donald Trump intervening militarily in the Middle East and attacking Iran is not merely a regional war — it marks the beginning of a reshaping of the global power structure. The international order is no longer governed by treaties and abstract norms. Rather, it has returned to a reality in which military power and strategic alliances determine the landscape. Against this backdrop, Taiwan’s strategic position has become clearer than ever before — there is no longer room for ambiguity or illusion.
However, some political forces in Taiwan remain stuck in outdated assumptions. Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun’s (鄭麗文) line of thinking — advocating for maintaining ambiguity, avoiding provoking China and preventing overreliance on the US — appears rational, but it is built upon an international order that no longer exists. The problem lies in the mistaken belief that ambiguity can mitigate risk, that concessions can be exchanged for security and that distance can take the place of alliances — this is a classic strategic error.
In a system dominated by power, neutrality does not exist. A country that lacks a clear position is not respected, but exploited. For China, ambiguity creates room for sustained pressure. For the US, it implies unreliability. Thus, the result is not enhanced security, but passivity and fragility. “Avoiding provoking China” is itself based on a false premise — Beijing’s strategic objective is not to respond to Taiwan, but to alter the “status quo” and expand its influence.
With regard to reducing reliance on the US, the problem is not exercising caution against dependence, but the absence of any viable alternative. Refusing to cooperate with the democratic camp equates to choosing a side within the global power structure. The key is not relying — or not relying — on the US, but ensuring that Taiwan becomes a strategically valuable partner. Only by becoming indispensable could security be incorporated into broader strategic calculations.
The KMT’s problem is that it still bases its strategy on the international environment of the past three decades, seeking security through ambiguity and balance. As the world has entered a quasi-wartime system, such a strategy would only cause Taiwan to lose its initiative.
What Taiwan needs is a strategic positioning that aligns with present realities. Militarily, it should bolster asymmetric capabilities and develop a porcupine defense strategy to raise the cost of aggression. Politically, it should clearly embed itself within the Indo-Pacific region’s democratic system. Economically, it should consolidate its semiconductor advantage, centered on Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Finally, it must reinforce its institutional and rhetorical legitimacy to stand firmly in reality and in principle.
History has repeatedly proven that the cost of miscalculation exceeds that of conflict itself. Ukraine failed to establish deterrence in time and ultimately paid the price of a full-scale war. Hong Kong lost its freedoms under promises that lacked real guarantees. As the international landscape and order have already changed, the KMT continues to navigate it using an outdated map — and as such, might ultimately arrive at the wrong destination.
Hsiao Hsi-huei is a freelance writer.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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