Japan’s elections have delivered Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi a significant political mandate, which comes at a pivotal moment for the Indo-Pacific region, with clear positive ramifications for Japan’s regional allies, including Taiwan.
Since assuming office in October last year, the Takaichi administration has made it a priority to double defense spending to 2 percent of GDP, bringing forward now-approved plans by two years in light of escalating regional threats.
The larger budget would enable Japan to strengthen its military capabilities, enhancing support to its regional partners.
When announcing the election, Takaichi said “the international security environment is becoming more severe,” referencing military activities conducted by China around Taiwan.
Taiwan has long been the focus of China’s coercive tactics, but events in the military and political spheres indicate that the threat level is reaching new heights.
In the event of direct military engagement by China, Taiwan is counting on a trilateral partnership with the US and Japan. As Taiwan sits at the center of the first island chain, an attack on Taiwan could be seen as an attack on the increasingly interconnected strategic interests of its close allies, requiring a coordinated response.
Those strategic interests directly involve Japan. Its Ryukyu islands, which house significant US military bases, are just 113km from Taiwan and have been the subject of sovereignty violations by Beijing.
Recognizing this growing threat, the Japanese government has called for de-escalation and dialogue over confrontation. At the same time, it has closely coordinated with the US to deepen coordination, something Washington prioritizes in its most recent national strategy document.
During a visit to Washington just prior to the strategy’s release, Japanese Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi and the US Department of Defense moved to expand joint training across Japan’s southwest region, including its territory in the first island chain.
Japan has been involved in and even led numerous exercises with major regional players including the US, Australia, Philippines and India, among others.
At the center of Japan’s regional approach is its Free and Open Indo-Pacific vision, a strategy that has existed for almost a decade, and one which Taiwan strongly supports. That doctrine upholds key principles such as freedom of navigation, respect for national sovereignty and opposition to any unilateral attempt to change the “status quo.”
The importance of such principles has become ever more apparent with inflamed regional tensions.
Late last year, the Chinese military held large-scale exercises including live-fire drills around Taiwan, simulating a seizure and blockade of its territory. The exercise, called “Justice Mission 2025,” was described by Beijing as a warning to those “plotting independence” and was a clear show of aggression aimed to deter Taiwan’s regional allies.
This was followed by a direct incursion into Taiwanese airspace on Jan. 17 by a Chinese surveillance drone in a move labeled by the Ministry of National Defense as “highly provocative and irresponsible.” The incident is the first time a Chinese drone has violated Taiwan’s sovereign airspace.
With evolving regional threats, Takaichi and Koizumi have rightly given their strategy added weight.
This requires greater coordination between Japan and its regional partners in areas including defense coordination and development assistance.
Support for Taiwan has not been well received by China, which seeks to limit Taipei’s influence. In November last year, Takaichi said in the Japanese parliament that China’s use of military force against Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation.” The remarks drew a strong reaction from Beijing.
Days before Justice Mission 2025, a senior Japanese delegation visited Taiwan, meeting with President William Lai (賴清德) who expressed his appreciation for Tokyo’s ongoing concerns over peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Lai voiced Taiwan’s desire for collaboration to realize a Free and Open Indo-Pacific region.
In response, China demanded that Japan “reflect deeply on its mistake,” lodging a formal diplomatic complaint. Other reports have indicated that China pressured European countries to bar Taiwanese politicians altogether.
This intimidation does not appear to have shaken Japan. For nations such as Taiwan, Tokyo remains an indispensable long-term partner.
Admiral (retired) Lee Hsi-min served in the navy for more than 40 years. He became chief of the general staff in 2017, the highest-ranking military officer in Taiwan and primary military adviser to the president and minister of national defense.
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