The US military campaign against Iran has put Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) on the back foot ahead of an expected summit with US President Donald Trump, who for the second time in as many months has turned Washington’s military against one of Beijing’s close partners.
Trump is set to arrive in Beijing at the end of this month following the US capture of then-Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in a risky Caracas raid in January and the US-Israeli air war that on Saturday killed Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the former leaders of two countries that have been major oil suppliers for China.
It is far from clear how that meeting, which the Trump administration has said would focus on trade, would play out, or indeed whether it would even go ahead.
Just last week, it appeared Trump would go to Beijing in a weakened position following a US Supreme Court decision invalidating many of his tariffs. However, now it is Xi who might be off-balance and struggling to mount a forceful response to the biggest US military operation since the Iraq War.
While Beijing has condemned the US-led operations as “unacceptable” and called for restraint, its measured response showed its limited ability to influence US military action and the transactional nature of its diplomatic partnerships, experts said.
China is “proving to be a feckless friend for its authoritarian allies,” Nicholas Burns, the former US ambassador to Beijing under then-US president Joe Biden, wrote on X.
Xi now faces the awkward prospect of feting Trump on the world stage, or backing out of the proposed March 31 to April 2 meeting. Beijing has yet to confirm the summit dates.
Should Xi decide to proceed, he might do so betting that in the long run it is Washington that would be diminished if it becomes entangled in a drawn-out Middle East conflict.
Trump has said the operation against Iran could run for about four weeks, which would bring it close to the eve of the China trip.
China’s embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment on whether the Iran situation had changed plans to host Trump.
Asked about the implications of the Iran strikes on talks with Xi, a White House official said Trump was “taking decisive action to eliminate major national security threats,” but did not mention China.
For China, the danger from the US military operation is practical and symbolic.
China, the world’s largest buyer of Iranian oil, last year got 13.4 percent of its oil imports by sea from that country. That makes it uniquely exposed to any supply disruption as the conflict unfolds, particularly in the event of a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most vital oil export route.
While China can diversify its imports, it would suffer significant price pressure from a near-term loss of Iranian oil, tightening margins for its manufacturing base on which the Chinese economy is heavily reliant, analysts said.
The US attack on Iran also serves as a reminder to China — and its partners — of the US military’s ability to strike not only in its backyard, but around the world.
“The strikes on Iran and the potential regime change will severely impact China’s interests,” Fudan University international relations expert Zhao Minghao (趙明昊) said. “China is assessing the deeper intentions behind US actions in Venezuela and Iran, as the US may increase pressure on China by controlling the international energy market.”
None of that would have been lost on the White House, which published the dates for Trump’s China trip as it was staging for the Iran attack.
A source familiar with US-China discussions said the White House was still awaiting a formal invitation from Chinese officials.
For now, the US is betting that its Iran operation would not trigger any Chinese military response.
One US official said there was not an expectation that China would provide material support to Iran during US operations, or that a continued US focus on the Middle East would embolden Beijing in the short term in the Indo-Pacific region, where it has pursued a historic military buildup.
The main US concern is that difficulty in rapidly replenishing reserves of munitions would reduce “medium-term deterrence” over the threat of Chinese military action against Taiwan, the official said.
Constrained in its ability to counter the US military’s global reach, China is likely to stand back and let the US own any Middle East chaos that results, reinforcing Beijing’s narrative that Washington is reckless and destabilizing, analysts said.
Peking University energy security expert Zha Daojiong (查道炯) said Chinese officials would not feel compelled to aid Iran in the conflict and would push back against the “purely rhetorical construction” in the West that it had an alliance with Iran.
“The direct parties to the conflict make their own bed and get to sleep in it,” Zha said.
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