After “Operation Absolute Resolve” to capture former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, the US joined Israel on Saturday last week in launching “Operation Epic Fury” to remove Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his theocratic regime leadership team. The two blitzes are widely believed to be a prelude to US President Donald Trump changing the geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region, targeting China’s rise.
In the National Security Strategic report released in December last year, the Trump administration made it clear that the US would focus on “restoring American pre-eminence in the Western hemisphere,” and “competing with China economically and militarily in the Indo-Pacific region.”
Trump said the operation against Iran, which was brutally suppressing domestic civil protests, aimed to give “freedom for the people,” and that destroying its nuclear weapons was “to eliminate its imminent threats and menacing activities directly endanger[ing] the US, our troops, our bases overseas and our allies throughout the world.”
Just as Venezuela has established an “all-weather strategic partnership” with China, Iran is a core member of the BRICS group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and plays a pivotal role in the Middle East for the Belt and Road Initiative to expand China’s infiltration.
While the US targeted Venezuela to curb Chinese influence in Latin America, Operation Epic Fury against Iran aimed to keep in check China’s expansion in the Middle East, such as by cutting down its low-cost strategic oil supply from Iran and Venezuela that accounted for 25 percent of its total oil imports. It also exposed the inefficiency of China-made defense systems and intelligence, as well as its empty diplomatic promises.
If the US and Israel’s highly-intense joint operations could successfully suppress Iran, many pundits believe the US would redirect its primary strategic focus to the Indo-Pacific region and inflict structural pressure on Beijing.
With the upcoming summit between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) next month, the military operations to remove two strategic partners of China could give Trump more advantages in trade negotiations and even on the Taiwan issue, which Beijing has named a red line for US-China relations.
However, there are also concerns that if the Middle East conflict cannot be brought to a quick end, a war of attrition would restrain the US’ ability to deter China in the Taiwan Strait.
US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby on Tuesday said that reports of dwindling US munitions stockpiles following strikes on Iran should not be misinterpreted as weakening deterrence in the Taiwan Strait.
Instead, “weakening the Iranian regime would free up US assets to be assigned to the Indo-Pacific region,” he said, adding that “any potential adversaries watching the capability of the joint force should be deterred by US readiness.”
“Washington would play a very important role in the Middle East, militarily, but with Israel, US Gulf partners and European allies being more assertive, the US would still be able to focus on the first island chain [including Taiwan],” he said.
Such a collective-defense strategy was also asserted in this year’s US National Defense Strategy report which said: “The US will establish a strong denial defense in the first island chain, and will urge and assist key regional allies and partners to assume greater responsibility for collective defense.”
Although the escalating conflict in Middle East is unlikely to trigger an immediate cross-strait crisis, it would not change China’s ambition for unification.
Being a crucial strategic node in the first island chain, Taiwan should take lessons from those military operations to further advance its asymmetric warfare capabilities for self-defense, and also deepen security ties with neighboring countries to counter China’s aggression.
The Executive Yuan has proposed a defense budget of NT$949.5 billion (US$29.97 billion) for this year, which could exceed 3 percent of GDP for the first time. The government also plans to allocate an eight-year special defense budget of NT$1.25 trillion to upgrade Taiwan’s missile defense system and domestic defense industry. Regrettably, the budgets have been continuously blocked by the opposition parties.
Today, the NT$1.25 trillion special defense budget would finally start legislative review, but it is overshadowed by the opposition parties’ threats of massive budget cuts.
National security should not be a tool for political competition and all political parties should set aside partisan differences to rationally discuss the defense budgets, taking an initial, but crucial step to fulfill a shared responsibility for regional and global stability.
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