Thu, Feb 12, 2026 page8

• Reflections for the lunar new year

  • By Paul Lin 林保華
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  More than one month has passed since the Gregorian new year, yet there are still a few more days before the Year of the Snake comes to an end and the Year of the Horse begins. This is an exceptionally exciting moment — one could say it is time for the “Dance of the Golden Snake” (金蛇狂舞) as adrenaline surges in anticipation of the arrival of the Year of the Horse.

  First, US President Donald Trump has set out to eliminate Chinese influence in the western hemisphere. On Jan. 3, he deployed troops to Venezuela and kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The country is now being run by acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez, who is implementing US intentions — controlling oil exports, releasing political prisoners, and carrying out gradual reforms to avoid major upheaval and internal chaos. Unexpectedly, those said to have suffered the greatest from this operation were Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) family, who had allegedly monopolized Venezuelan oil at low prices — particularly Xi’s elder sister, Qi Qiaoqiao (齊橋橋). Trump is now expected to deal with Cuba, whose energy supplies have been cut off, in an attempt to resolve the unfinished business of former US president John F. Kennedy.

  After Panama’s Supreme Court on Jan. 29 ruled that the concession held by a subsidiary of Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison Holdings to operate ports at either end of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional, China threatened to impose political and economic sanctions on Panama, while CK Hutchison stated that it would seek compensation. This was the direct result of China’s interference in the sale of port management rights. CK Hutchison’s share price rose 0.69 percent that day, indicating that investors were unimpressed by China’s intervention. Meanwhile, several Central American countries are also in talks with the US about changing their policies toward Taiwan. It is clear that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is encountering difficulties in the region.

  In the eastern hemisphere, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the Japanese House of Representatives before sweeping the general election with the momentum of a tidal wave — securing an unprecedented victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which now controls more than two-thirds of the 465 seats, and is further allied with the Japan Innovation Party. It holds the power to take initiative on issues such as countering China, economic reform and constitutional revision.

  However, Takaichi has not let the victory go to her head — she thanked Trump for his support and expressed gratitude to voters who turned out to cast their ballots amid snowstorms. After the election, she said she would fulfill her campaign promise of strengthening national defense, while indicating that the door to discussions with China would remain open.

  With regard to how constitutional amendments would proceed — transforming Japan from a so-called “pacifist state” into a country capable of defending its own sovereignty — Takaichi would likely handle the matter with caution. Xi himself amended China’s constitution solely to facilitate his own lifelong dictatorship. On what grounds, then, could he criticize Japan?

  Meanwhile, the artificial intelligence industry is driving global economic growth, despite concerns about a potential bubble. Taiwan’s stock market hit a new record high on Tuesday, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co shares reaching a new peak. However, the divergence between volume and price is somewhat insufficient.

  The recent dramatic fluctuations in the prices of gold and silver are also unprecedented. After Trump took office last year, the sheer scale of his moves combined with uncertain economic policies led a lot of safe-haven capital to flood into gold, which sent gold prices soaring, and silver prices followed suit. That the price of gold would exceed US$5,000 was already unimaginable, but some experts believed it could even rise past US$20,000. However, extremes ultimately reverse — after climbing to nearly US$5,600, the price of gold suddenly crashed on Jan. 30, plunging 7 percent within just 40 minutes and leaving an untold number of investors facing margin calls and forced liquidation.

  Swings in the price of silver were even more volatile. Bargain hunters — particularly older women in communist countries such as China and Vietnam — rushed in to buy on the dip. Bitcoin fell even more sharply at the beginning of this month, plunging more than 40 percent before managing to hold on at around US$60,000. Fortunately, relatively few investors and speculators were involved — otherwise, the resulting waves might have caused far more to suffer.

  It is precisely the “Dance of the Golden Snake” that heightens people’s expectations for the coming Year of the Horse, while sharpening our sense of vigilance. Amid the charge of ten thousand galloping horses, one cannot help but wonder — at the Trump-Xi meeting rumored to be held in April, would Xi, the so-called “accelerator-in-chief,” feel as though he has been manipulated and outmaneuvered by Trump?

  In reality, the alliance between the US, Japan and Taiwan is becoming increasingly consolidated. Faced with such a favorable international landscape, some within the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) have pushed themselves toward political extremes. What consequences might this bring? In the end, the path toward the light remains the shared aspiration of humankind.

  Paul Lin is a Taipei-based political commentator.

  Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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