More than one month has passed since the Gregorian new year, yet there are still a few more days before the Year of the Snake comes to an end and the Year of the Horse begins. This is an exceptionally exciting moment — one could say it is time for the “Dance of the Golden Snake” (金蛇狂舞) as adrenaline surges in anticipation of the arrival of the Year of the Horse.
First, US President Donald Trump has set out to eliminate Chinese influence in the western hemisphere. On Jan. 3, he deployed troops to Venezuela and kidnapped Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. The country is now being run by acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodriguez, who is implementing US intentions — controlling oil exports, releasing political prisoners, and carrying out gradual reforms to avoid major upheaval and internal chaos. Unexpectedly, those said to have suffered the greatest from this operation were Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) family, who had allegedly monopolized Venezuelan oil at low prices — particularly Xi’s elder sister, Qi Qiaoqiao (齊橋橋). Trump is now expected to deal with Cuba, whose energy supplies have been cut off, in an attempt to resolve the unfinished business of former US president John F. Kennedy.
After Panama’s Supreme Court on Jan. 29 ruled that the concession held by a subsidiary of Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison Holdings to operate ports at either end of the Panama Canal was unconstitutional, China threatened to impose political and economic sanctions on Panama, while CK Hutchison stated that it would seek compensation. This was the direct result of China’s interference in the sale of port management rights. CK Hutchison’s share price rose 0.69 percent that day, indicating that investors were unimpressed by China’s intervention. Meanwhile, several Central American countries are also in talks with the US about changing their policies toward Taiwan. It is clear that China’s Belt and Road Initiative is encountering difficulties in the region.
In the eastern hemisphere, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi dissolved the Japanese House of Representatives before sweeping the general election with the momentum of a tidal wave — securing an unprecedented victory for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which now controls more than two-thirds of the 465 seats, and is further allied with the Japan Innovation Party. It holds the power to take initiative on issues such as countering China, economic reform and constitutional revision.
However, Takaichi has not let the victory go to her head — she thanked Trump for his support and expressed gratitude to voters who turned out to cast their ballots amid snowstorms. After the election, she said she would fulfill her campaign promise of strengthening national defense, while indicating that the door to discussions with China would remain open.
With regard to how constitutional amendments would proceed — transforming Japan from a so-called “pacifist state” into a country capable of defending its own sovereignty — Takaichi would likely handle the matter with caution. Xi himself amended China’s constitution solely to facilitate his own lifelong dictatorship. On what grounds, then, could he criticize Japan?
Meanwhile, the artificial intelligence industry is driving global economic growth, despite concerns about a potential bubble. Taiwan’s stock market hit a new record high on Tuesday, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co shares reaching a new peak. However, the divergence between volume and price is somewhat insufficient.
The recent dramatic fluctuations in the prices of gold and silver are also unprecedented. After Trump took office last year, the sheer scale of his moves combined with uncertain economic policies led a lot of safe-haven capital to flood into gold, which sent gold prices soaring, and silver prices followed suit. That the price of gold would exceed US$5,000 was already unimaginable, but some experts believed it could even rise past US$20,000. However, extremes ultimately reverse — after climbing to nearly US$5,600, the price of gold suddenly crashed on Jan. 30, plunging 7 percent within just 40 minutes and leaving an untold number of investors facing margin calls and forced liquidation.
Swings in the price of silver were even more volatile. Bargain hunters — particularly older women in communist countries such as China and Vietnam — rushed in to buy on the dip. Bitcoin fell even more sharply at the beginning of this month, plunging more than 40 percent before managing to hold on at around US$60,000. Fortunately, relatively few investors and speculators were involved — otherwise, the resulting waves might have caused far more to suffer.
It is precisely the “Dance of the Golden Snake” that heightens people’s expectations for the coming Year of the Horse, while sharpening our sense of vigilance. Amid the charge of ten thousand galloping horses, one cannot help but wonder — at the Trump-Xi meeting rumored to be held in April, would Xi, the so-called “accelerator-in-chief,” feel as though he has been manipulated and outmaneuvered by Trump?
In reality, the alliance between the US, Japan and Taiwan is becoming increasingly consolidated. Faced with such a favorable international landscape, some within the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) have pushed themselves toward political extremes. What consequences might this bring? In the end, the path toward the light remains the shared aspiration of humankind.
Paul Lin is a Taipei-based political commentator.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
A gap appears to be emerging between Washington’s foreign policy elites and the broader American public on how the United States should respond to China’s rise. From my vantage working at a think tank in Washington, DC, and through regular travel around the United States, I increasingly experience two distinct discussions. This divergence — between America’s elite hawkishness and public caution — may become one of the least appreciated and most consequential external factors influencing Taiwan’s security environment in the years ahead. Within the American policy community, the dominant view of China has grown unmistakably tough. Many members of Congress, as
After declaring Iran’s military “gone,” US President Donald Trump appealed to the UK, France, Japan and South Korea — as well as China, Iran’s strategic partner — to send minesweepers and naval forces to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. When allies balked, the request turned into a warning: NATO would face “a very bad” future if it refused. The prevailing wisdom is that Trump faces a credibility problem: having spent years insulting allies, he finds they would not rally when he needs them. That is true, but superficial, as though a structural collapse could be caused by wounded feelings. Something
Former Taipei mayor and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) founding chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) was sentenced to 17 years in prison on Thursday, making headlines across major media. However, another case linked to the TPP — the indictment of Chinese immigrant Xu Chunying (徐春鶯) for alleged violations of the Anti-Infiltration Act (反滲透法) on Tuesday — has also stirred up heated discussions. Born in Shanghai, Xu became a resident of Taiwan through marriage in 1993. Currently the director of the Taiwan New Immigrant Development Association, she was elected to serve as legislator-at-large for the TPP in 2023, but was later charged with involvement
Out of 64 participating universities in this year’s Stars Program — through which schools directly recommend their top students to universities for admission — only 19 filled their admissions quotas. There were 922 vacancies, down more than 200 from last year; top universities had 37 unfilled places, 40 fewer than last year. The original purpose of the Stars Program was to expand admissions to a wider range of students. However, certain departments at elite universities that failed to meet their admissions quotas are not improving. Vacancies at top universities are linked to students’ program preferences on their applications, but inappropriate admission
RSS