Democrats head into next year’s elections with a fighting chance to win back the US House of Representatives, after victories that showcase sharply different visions of the party as it seeks to claw back some power in a Washington dominated by Republican US President Donald Trump.
The most critical win for the Democrats’ hopes came in California on Tuesday, when voters approved a ballot measure to allow state lawmakers to adopt a new congressional map that could net the party as many as five new seats, offsetting a comparable move in Texas to benefit Republicans in a nationwide battle over redistricting.
Republicans are eager to seize on New York City’s mayor-elect — democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, a state representative with a sweeping progressive agenda — who Trump and his allies would seek to portray as the face of the Democratic Party in the midterm elections that will determine control of the US Congress for the final two years of Trump’s term.
Illustration: Louise Ting
Two moderate Democrats elected governor, former US representative Abigail Spanberger of Virginia and US Representative Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey, were also catapulted onto the national stage after winning their states by sizeable margins, presenting contrasting versions of the party.
Tuesday’s highest-profile contests occurred in Democratic-leaning territory that would play little role in the races that will determine control of the US Congress.
“I don’t think we can use tonight as a total painted picture of what the next election cycle’s going to be,” South Carolina-based Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright said. “So I think we have to make sure we continue to motivate, educate and galvanize the constituencies that came out tonight to make sure we keep them in the Democratic column.”
Republicans hold a 219 to 213 majority in the US House and a 53 to 47 majority in the US Senate. To win the US Senate, Democrats would need to defend seats in highly competitive states, including Georgia, Michigan and Minnesota, while also making inroads in Republican-held states such as Florida and North Carolina.
The president’s party historically loses US House seats in the midterms. Democrats won the US House majority in 2018, Trump’s first midterm election, netting 41 seats that first brought Spanberger and Sherrill into office. They used their power to conduct oversight on Trump’s administration and twice impeached him.
“I think it’s vastly more important that moderates won in big states that often elect Republican governors than it is that a far-left candidate won in NYC [New York City],” said Matt Bennett, vice president of Third Way, a Democratic centrist think tank.
In the lead-up to next year, Trump has urged state lawmakers in Republican-led legislatures to redraw their congressional maps to maximize House Republicans’ ability to maintain control of the chamber by minimizing the number of competitive battleground districts. States typically create new maps each decade to reflect new census data.
California’s ballot initiative, Proposition 50 (Prop 50), was a direct response to Republican-led Texas’ redrawing of its congressional map to net as many as five more seats for Republicans.
“Passing Prop 50 is a big win for [California Governor Gavin] Newsom and Democrats in neutralizing Texas, but the partisan fight is far from over,” KMM Strategies political strategist Kate Maeder said. “These five pickup seats, we’re still going to have to fight for them. Not all five can be taken for granted, but we definitely have an advantage now.”
The top Democrats in the US Congress, both from New York, have maintained an arm’s-length distance from Mamdani. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries withheld his support until Oct. 24, the day before early voting began, and Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer did not endorse Mamdani and declined to tell reporters on Tuesday whether he voted for him.
House Republicans’ campaign arm pledged in a memo on Tuesday last week to “make Zohran Mamdani famous in battleground races next November,” outlining a strategy to nationalize the most competitive races in the country by tying Democrats to the mayor-elect.
National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella said voters would make House Democrats pay next year for surrendering to a “radical socialist ... and the far-left mob.”
Axiom Strategies Republican political strategist Erin Maguire said Mamdani would be a prominent foil for Republicans over the next year. Republicans have similarly elevated former US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi of California and US Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York to try to drag down Democratic candidates in competitive districts.
“It won’t work in every district, because not every message works in every district, not every foil works the same in every district,” Maguire said. “But all these committees know that and so they play the right way in each district to get that message to land.”
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