Russo-Chinese relations are at the heart of “Cold War 2” just like they were with the original Cold War. The most famous book about the Bolshevik revolution is John Reed’s Ten Days that Shook the World. The next 10 days could be the equivalent for China. The world could see some pivotal changes soon as the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) fourth plenary session of the 20th congress is scheduled to be held next week from Monday to Thursday.
The current cold war sees the West fighting a combined Russia and China. In a nutshell, the Ukrainians are doing an amazing job keeping Russian President Vladimir Putin from taking additional territory in Europe. They are also attacking Russia’s oil infrastructure. The Russian economy is almost ready to crack.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday said that he might offer Ukraine US Tomahawk cruise missiles, which could ramp up military pressure on Russia. Putin is becoming increasingly dependent on Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) to prop him and his failing strategy up.
Meanwhile, Trump is putting additional economic pressure on China. He just imposed an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods.
In a classic “pincer” movement, there is a robust US military threat against Russia and an equally strong economic one against China. Trump’s goal is clearly to tear the Russo-
Chinese alliance asunder.
The maneuver is putting particularly well-timed pressure on Xi. There is much speculation online about why Xi did not attend a North Korean 80th anniversary celebration and military parade. Was he afraid to leave the country? Perhaps fearful of being overthrown?
Nobody knows why Xi chose not to attend, but clearly something is going on. All the facts point to one important question: Will Xi’s power be challenged at the fourth plenary session of the CCP’s 20th congress?
Xi could be facing the possibility of ouster in a week’s time. His misguided support for Putin will certainly be the question of the hour. China must make a pivotal decision soon: continue to support Russia’s failing war against Ukraine, or seek to improve its economic relations with the US.
That makes the upcoming days the “10 days that shook the world.” Not just for China and Russia, but also for the US. The world could see some major “Cold War 2” changes soon.
Bruce Elleman, who was the William V. Pratt professor of international history at the US Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, is retired.
George Santayana wrote: “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” This article will help readers avoid repeating mistakes by examining four examples from the civil war between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) forces and the Republic of China (ROC) forces that involved two city sieges and two island invasions. The city sieges compared are Changchun (May to October 1948) and Beiping (November 1948 to January 1949, renamed Beijing after its capture), and attempts to invade Kinmen (October 1949) and Hainan (April 1950). Comparing and contrasting these examples, we can learn how Taiwan may prevent a war with
A recent trio of opinion articles in this newspaper reflects the growing anxiety surrounding Washington’s reported request for Taiwan to shift up to 50 percent of its semiconductor production abroad — a process likely to take 10 years, even under the most serious and coordinated effort. Simon H. Tang (湯先鈍) issued a sharp warning (“US trade threatens silicon shield,” Oct. 4, page 8), calling the move a threat to Taiwan’s “silicon shield,” which he argues deters aggression by making Taiwan indispensable. On the same day, Hsiao Hsi-huei (蕭錫惠) (“Responding to US semiconductor policy shift,” Oct. 4, page 8) focused on
Taiwan is rapidly accelerating toward becoming a “super-aged society” — moving at one of the fastest rates globally — with the proportion of elderly people in the population sharply rising. While the demographic shift of “fewer births than deaths” is no longer an anomaly, the nation’s legal framework and social customs appear stuck in the last century. Without adjustments, incidents like last month’s viral kicking incident on the Taipei MRT involving a 73-year-old woman would continue to proliferate, sowing seeds of generational distrust and conflict. The Senior Citizens Welfare Act (老人福利法), originally enacted in 1980 and revised multiple times, positions older
Nvidia Corp’s plan to build its new headquarters at the Beitou Shilin Science Park’s T17 and T18 plots has stalled over a land rights dispute, prompting the Taipei City Government to propose the T12 plot as an alternative. The city government has also increased pressure on Shin Kong Life Insurance Co, which holds the development rights for the T17 and T18 plots. The proposal is the latest by the city government over the past few months — and part of an ongoing negotiation strategy between the two sides. Whether Shin Kong Life Insurance backs down might be the key factor
RSS