Russo-Chinese relations are at the heart of “Cold War 2” just like they were with the original Cold War. The most famous book about the Bolshevik revolution is John Reed’s Ten Days that Shook the World. The next 10 days could be the equivalent for China. The world could see some pivotal changes soon as the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) fourth plenary session of the 20th congress is scheduled to be held next week from Monday to Thursday.
The current cold war sees the West fighting a combined Russia and China. In a nutshell, the Ukrainians are doing an amazing job keeping Russian President Vladimir Putin from taking additional territory in Europe. They are also attacking Russia’s oil infrastructure. The Russian economy is almost ready to crack.
US President Donald Trump on Sunday said that he might offer Ukraine US Tomahawk cruise missiles, which could ramp up military pressure on Russia. Putin is becoming increasingly dependent on Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) to prop him and his failing strategy up.
Meanwhile, Trump is putting additional economic pressure on China. He just imposed an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods.
In a classic “pincer” movement, there is a robust US military threat against Russia and an equally strong economic one against China. Trump’s goal is clearly to tear the Russo-
Chinese alliance asunder.
The maneuver is putting particularly well-timed pressure on Xi. There is much speculation online about why Xi did not attend a North Korean 80th anniversary celebration and military parade. Was he afraid to leave the country? Perhaps fearful of being overthrown?
Nobody knows why Xi chose not to attend, but clearly something is going on. All the facts point to one important question: Will Xi’s power be challenged at the fourth plenary session of the CCP’s 20th congress?
Xi could be facing the possibility of ouster in a week’s time. His misguided support for Putin will certainly be the question of the hour. China must make a pivotal decision soon: continue to support Russia’s failing war against Ukraine, or seek to improve its economic relations with the US.
That makes the upcoming days the “10 days that shook the world.” Not just for China and Russia, but also for the US. The world could see some major “Cold War 2” changes soon.
Bruce Elleman, who was the William V. Pratt professor of international history at the US Naval War College in Newport, Rhode Island, is retired.
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