Taiwan released a new civil defense handbook on Tuesday last week. For the first time, the Ministry of National Defense in the book instructed the public on what to do if a war broke out, and it clearly underlined that “in the event of a military invasion of Taiwan, any claim that the government has surrendered or that the nation has been defeated is false.”
Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 and China’s military buildup to support Beijing’s ambitious expansionism, global military spending has risen to a post-Cold War peak. A growing number of countries, such as France, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Lithuania, have also issued defense manuals to prepare their countries for the possibility of war.
Facing China’s escalating military coercion, Taiwan must step up the public’s resilience and defense preparations, in line with the country’s military reforms and aim to increase the defense budget to 5 percent of GDP by 2030.
The new handbook, updated from the previous 2022 and 2023 editions, contains new security guidelines to counter an enemy nation’s evolving hybrid warfare. For the first time, it gives a list of wartime scenarios Taiwan might face, from traditional military campaigns to an all-out invasion, as well as the sabotage of critical infrastructure, establishing a blockade or no-fly zone, waging cognitive warfare through disinformation and conducting cyberkinetic attacks.
It especially highlights that an enemy would exploit disinformation to divide and weaken the nation’s resolve.
Article 3 of the National Defense Act (國防法) says that “the national defense of the Republic of China is of all-out defense,” which should involve affairs pertaining to not only military, but also civil defense, as well as the political, society, economic, psychological and technological domains.
However, the level of threat awareness among Taiwanese has been a worrying issue. Discrepancies in the motivations and proactivity for contingency response practices also pose a challenge.
A recent survey conducted by the Institute for National Defense and Security Studies said that although China frequently conducts military exercises and has escalated its coercion against Taiwan, half of the respondents still had no feelings about such threats, and 65 percent believed that it was “very unlikely” or “unlikely” that China would invade Taiwan within five years.
The survey also showed that despite 70 percent expressing willingness to participate in community defense organizations, the percentage saw a huge decline among supporters of the opposition parties, showing a clear division in the motivations for defending Taiwan.
Such political division has already caused obstructions in the opposition-controlled legislature to the allocation of the national defense budget and military reform.
A report released by the Information Operations Research Group on Wednesday said that Beijing has been engaged in a systematic campaign to spread a narrative of “Taiwan defeatism,” which depicts Taiwan as weak and dependent on foreign powers, exploiting economic anxiety and fear of war. Such defeatist narratives aim to demoralize Taiwanese and sow division in Taiwan, then present acquiescence to China as a solution.
Those researches have indicated a gap in the public perception and Taiwan’s shortcomings in strategic communication and social mobilization. Effectively enhancing the public’s awareness of threats, and promoting comprehensive social support and participation in preparing for the possibility of war should be an important task that cannot be neglected or postponed.
President William Lai (賴清德) recently said that “the government will never surrender if facing invasion, and Taiwan would show determination to defend freedom, democracy and its long-term survival.” The public must share the collective responsibilities for safeguarding the country and the ones they love.
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