Since Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto was inaugurated in October last year, he has embarked on an impressive series of bilateral visits to various countries, including Malaysia, Brunei, Brazil, India, Chile, the UK and the US, as well as several states in the Middle East. His personalistic approach to foreign policy has guided Indonesia’s diplomatic strategy, prioritizing bilateral meetings and in-person diplomacy with other world leaders.
While enhancing personal relationships and bilateral diplomacy remains important, Indonesia should readjust its foreign policy to achieve a more balanced approach, prioritizing multilateral engagement and strengthening regional institutions. Why is such a rebalancing necessary?
First, this strategic realignment is imperative in light of the rising geopolitical tensions, such as in the Taiwan Strait. When China escalated its military exercises across the Taiwan Strait following the 2022 visit of then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi, the Indonesian government was among the first to publicly acknowledge the need to evacuate its citizens in Taiwan. As of May, the National Immigration Agency reported 323,795 Indonesians residing in Taiwan, making them the largest group of foreign residents.
Given this sheer number, the development of a robust evacuation plan to address the potential of open conflict in the Taiwan Strait should incorporate a range of initiatives, including the enforcement of multilateral partnerships at the regional level, especially within ASEAN. Countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore, which also have substantial populations in Taiwan, should be prioritized by Indonesia as key partners in any regional evacuation framework.
In 2006, ASEAN adopted the Guidelines for the Provision of Emergency Assistance by ASEAN Missions in Third Countries to Nationals of ASEAN Member Countries in Crisis Situations, establishing an institutional framework for joint noncombatant evacuation operations (NEOs). While this framework represents a critical step toward regional crisis preparedness, it remains unclear how and to what extent the group is ready to tackle the unique challenges posed by a potential evacuation from Taiwan, which would involve a complex maritime and island-based operation. Indonesia, thus, should recalibrate its foreign policy by engaging ASEAN to develop a comprehensive plan for large-scale NEOs.
Gerindra’s (Prabowo’s political party) foreign policy manifesto, which advocates for Indonesia to rely solely on its own strength, is dangerous. No country could conduct such massive evacuations without assistance and coordination from others, especially given Indonesia’s limited diplomatic influence when dealing with China and the US across the Taiwan Strait, and its weak defense capabilities in managing significant repatriation efforts. Hence, instead of abandoning ASEAN, Indonesia should prioritize revitalizing and strengthening the organization to address potential crises arising outside the region.
Second, realigning Indonesia’s foreign policy course with ASEAN would help reinforce this regional institution. As the only regional organization in Southeast Asia, ASEAN has faced increasing challenges due to the growing doubts about its ability to prevent future conflicts and manage potential crises, especially ones involving major powers outside the region. Consequently, some ASEAN member countries have preferred multilateral partnerships beyond the regional framework.
The Philippines opts to engage in defense leaders meetings alongside Japan, Australia and the US. Manila signed the fourth Joint Statement on the Meeting of Defense Ministers with these allies on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore this year. This alignment could further undermine ASEAN centrality in responding to and managing future regional crises.
Furthermore, analysis produced by the International Institute of Strategic Studies acknowledged the need for ASEAN to develop a regional crisis response architecture to address any potential impact from geopolitical flash points, such as the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Given the possible spillover of these two conflicts to Indonesia, developing regional crisis prevention and management within ASEAN should be at the heart of Indonesia’s foreign policy strategy and outlook.
Nowhere is it more crucial for Jakarta to readjust its foreign policy than it is amid the mounting geopolitical uncertainties in the Asia-Pacific region. The principle of bebas-aktif (“independent and active”) foreign policy should be recalibrated to strengthen the regional security architecture via ASEAN and other multilateral organizations, rather than primarily serving the personalistic foreign policy direction of the Indonesian president.
Ratih Kabinawa is an adjunct research fellow at the School of Social Sciences at the University of Western Australia.
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