The world’s longest-running armed insurgency has come to an abrupt end. Some four decades after orchestrating its first attack against Turkish government targets, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has decided to disband and disarm. The decision marks a turning point not only for Turkey, but for the entire Middle East.
Since its founding in the late 1970s by the now-jailed Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK was motivated primarily by the goal of establishing an independent Kurdish state, while also seeking to secure political rights for the Kurdish minority in Turkey, but several factors, both domestic and international, have apparently convinced its leaders to abandon violence.
Begin with the domestic political situation. Two-term Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made it clear that he hopes to seek a third mandate, meaning that he has to find a way to amend Turkey’s constitution or to convince parliament to back an early election bill. In either case, success would require him to secure more support than his ruling coalition — his Justice and Development Party and the far-right Nationalist Movement Party — can provide, but Turkey’s third-largest party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), can deliver the missing votes. The objective of enrolling the DEM in the parliamentary effort to amend the constitution paved the way for the “Kurdish opening,” designed to enhance the political and cultural rights of Turkey’s Kurds. The quid pro quo was the dismantling of the PKK and an end to its terrorist campaign against the Turkish state.
The PKK’s decision to disband was also influenced by international developments, which had placed the group under severe pressure. Former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad — who had used the PKK as a tool to undermine Turkey — was ousted in December last year and the new Syrian regime could not be counted on to support Kurdish efforts to destabilize Turkey.
The US is also distancing itself from the PKK affiliates that once played a leading role in the fight against the Islamic State group. Whereas former US president Joe Biden’s administration offered near unconditional support to US-allied Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces, US President Donald Trump believes that US national interests — not least political stability in Syria — are better served by strengthening ties with Turkey.
A final, less-discussed factor shaping the PKK’s calculations was Turkey’s growing use of drone technology to strengthen border security and, more importantly, to target senior PKK commanders outside of Turkey — even deep in Iraqi territory. As this significantly weakened the PKK’s logistical and operational effectiveness, it likely prompted a fundamental reassessment of the insurgency’s prospects.
This combination of factors has created a window of opportunity for Turkey to resolve the Kurdish issue without the kind of violent campaign that fuels radicalization, but a successful transition from an era of armed struggle to one of peace and integration would require Erdogan’s government to deliver on two fronts.
The first is transparency. The PKK’s long history of violence has understandably generated deep animosity within Turkish society. It is therefore essential that the contents of negotiations between the PKK and the Turkish government — including the relevant trade-offs — are communicated clearly and openly. For example, a major consideration would be whether PKK-affiliated entities such as the People’s Protection Units in Syria, would also disarm. The Turkish parliament — and, in particular, the main opposition parties within it — must play a central role in guiding this sensitive process.
The second front is democracy. This historic opening cannot succeed without genuine democratic reform, including credible steps to safeguard judicial independence and enhance freedom of speech and association.
Erdogan’s government could secure quick wins in this area by complying with rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, including its demand to release Kurdish political leader Selahattin Demirtas.
At a time when Ocalan could be released, the Turkish government would also do well to address the conditions faced by other political detainees, such as Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and Umit Ozdag, who leads the ultra-nationalist Victory Party.
The dismantling of the PKK presents a historic opportunity to build a better Turkey. Safeguarding the nation’s newfound freedom from PKK terrorism requires strengthening its democracy more broadly. Beyond helping Turkey, such an initiative would demonstrate to violent actors across the Middle East that the end of political insurgencies can lead to lasting and inclusive peace.
Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat, is director of EDAM, an Istanbul-based think tank, and a senior policy fellow at Carnegie Europe.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
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