South Asia is once again at the brink. The recent military escalation between India and Pakistan — sparked by a deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir — has reignited fears of a wider regional conflict. India blamed Pakistan for harboring militant groups responsible for the attack, a claim Pakistan firmly denies. Hostilities intensified with tit-for-tat operations. Although a ceasefire was brokered under US diplomatic pressure, the truce remains fragile. Should escalation resume, this could mark the fifth major war between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
While this might appear to be a localized South Asian issue, its reverberations are felt far beyond. In an interconnected Asia, regional flare-ups trigger cross-border ripples. East Asia and Southeast Asia are not immune.
For China, a close ally of Pakistan and strategic rival of India, the conflict presents a diplomatic dilemma. Stability is critical for Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, especially the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which traverses the volatile region of Gilgit-Baltistan. However, overt involvement risks entangling China in direct confrontation — something it would rather avoid. China’s carefully worded response, calling for “restraint and peaceful resolution,” while emphasizing the protection of strategic joint projects, reflects this tightrope diplomacy. Beijing refrained from blaming either side, seeking to preserve relations with both.
For Taiwan, the conflict poses indirect yet serious challenges. Chief among them is the diversion of US strategic focus — a concerning scenario as Taiwan faces sustained pressure from Beijing. A distracted Washington, preoccupied with crises elsewhere, creates strategic breathing room for China to increase coercion.
Moreover, the specter of nuclear escalation between India and Pakistan undermines regional stability and investor confidence. Taiwan’s economy, deeply tied to global supply chains, could face shocks from increased insurance premiums, trade disruptions and energy price hikes, particularly if maritime tensions affect the Indian Ocean shipping routes.
In Southeast Asia, more than 40 percent of global trade passes through the Strait of Malacca, much of it connecting ports in India, Pakistan and the Gulf. Any disruption to this flow would raise logistical costs and hit consumer prices across the region.
Diplomatically, rising India-Pakistan tensions might also reshape dynamics within ASEAN and other regional forums. Historically neutral countries could face pressure to take positions, becoming pawns in great power rivalry. This could test ASEAN’s cohesion and geopolitical relevance, especially as seen in the bloc’s divided stance on the Ukraine war. Even domestically, tensions are surfacing. In Malaysia and Singapore, digital clashes among South Asian diaspora communities — primarily Indians and Pakistanis — have been reported, raising concerns about potential social unrest.
The lesson is clear: Regional peace cannot be pursued in silos. Asia’s subregions are interlinked — strategically, economically and socially. A crisis in South Asia affects East and Southeast Asia as well.
ASEAN in particular must go beyond issuing statements of concern. It should build credible preventive diplomacy mechanisms and offer platforms for dialogue and mediation. This conflict is not a distant war story. It is a sobering reminder that stability in Asia is a fragile, collective enterprise. When nuclear-armed states exchange missiles, the world cannot afford to be a passive spectator.
Najamuddin Khairur Rijal is an associate professor in the International Relations Department of the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Muhammadiyah Malang in Indonesia.
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