The initial failure of coalition members to back the new German chancellor in sufficient numbers was a bad beginning at a treacherous moment for the nation.
The election of Friedrich Merz as chancellor by German legislators on Tuesday morning was meant to end months of political instability, since the collapse of former German chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government half a year ago — itself the result of bitter infighting at the top. Many fear that this could be the last chance to keep out the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), but the humiliating result of the first ballot — in which Merz became the first chancellor-designate to fail to secure the majority needed in the Bundestag since World War II — was a bad beginning.
It was supposed to be a straightforward confirmation, instead he was hobbled by rebels from his own coalition. Only 310 of its 328 legislators backed him, short of the 316 required. He was approved by 325 in a hastily scheduled second vote, hours later.
Yet while it was a bombshell, the first vote only laid bare the fundamental problem. The alliance between Merz’s conservatives and the Social Democrats might be known as a grand coalition, but it is in practice a very modest one — and he has no realistic alternatives should it fall apart.
AfD leader Alice Weidel made no attempt to hide her glee at the debacle in the Bundestag, calling for a snap election. Her ethno-nationalist party, now formally declared as extremist by Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, came second in February’s snap election, gaining one in five votes. It has since risen to first place in some polls.
The concern is of a toxic cycle emerging. As support for parties in the center diminishes, they are forced to draw together — strengthening the perception that they form a single blob which mutes any new endeavor addressing the real needs of ordinary voters, and instead horse-trades its way toward unsatisfactory compromises. That in turn could whittle support further, with voters concluding that right-wing political extremism offers the only real prospect for change. No one would suggest this is unique to Germany, but the AfD’s surge makes it especially dangerous, and the nation’s history makes it especially chilling.
A political system built for stability has entered an unpredictable new age. Merz’s domestic struggles are intensified by the storm blowing in across the Atlantic. The administration of US President Donald Trump is openly egging on the AfD and undermining the government. US tariffs threaten a struggling economy. The disintegration of US security guarantees loom over the continent.
That context ensured that Merz’s eventual swearing-in was received with undisguised relief elsewhere in Europe, too. The best-case scenario is that Tuesday’s shock forces a recalibration by both the new chancellor and members of his coalition. Resolving their discontent would require empathy, subtlety and deftness that he has yet to show.
His strident rhetoric, yet political flexibility has often made him look brazen rather than pragmatic. His decision to scrap borrowing restrictions, allowing defense spending to rise, was necessary, but arrived as a screeching U-turn, which angered members of his own Christian Democratic Union.
Relying on AfD votes to push through a resolution on border security was a grave error that broke the post-war taboo against working with the far-right. Few will feel that he is the ideal leader for this perilous moment — as his dismal poll ratings demonstrate — but with so much at stake, Germany cannot afford for its new chancellor to fail.
As strategic tensions escalate across the vast Indo-Pacific region, Taiwan has emerged as more than a potential flashpoint. It is the fulcrum upon which the credibility of the evolving American-led strategy of integrated deterrence now rests. How the US and regional powers like Japan respond to Taiwan’s defense, and how credible the deterrent against Chinese aggression proves to be, will profoundly shape the Indo-Pacific security architecture for years to come. A successful defense of Taiwan through strengthened deterrence in the Indo-Pacific would enhance the credibility of the US-led alliance system and underpin America’s global preeminence, while a failure of integrated deterrence would
It is being said every second day: The ongoing recall campaign in Taiwan — where citizens are trying to collect enough signatures to trigger re-elections for a number of Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) legislators — is orchestrated by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), or even President William Lai (賴清德) himself. The KMT makes the claim, and foreign media and analysts repeat it. However, they never show any proof — because there is not any. It is alarming how easily academics, journalists and experts toss around claims that amount to accusing a democratic government of conspiracy — without a shred of evidence. These
The Executive Yuan recently revised a page of its Web site on ethnic groups in Taiwan, replacing the term “Han” (漢族) with “the rest of the population.” The page, which was updated on March 24, describes the composition of Taiwan’s registered households as indigenous (2.5 percent), foreign origin (1.2 percent) and the rest of the population (96.2 percent). The change was picked up by a social media user and amplified by local media, sparking heated discussion over the weekend. The pan-blue and pro-China camp called it a politically motivated desinicization attempt to obscure the Han Chinese ethnicity of most Taiwanese.
On Wednesday last week, the Rossiyskaya Gazeta published an article by Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) asserting the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) territorial claim over Taiwan effective 1945, predicated upon instruments such as the 1943 Cairo Declaration and the 1945 Potsdam Proclamation. The article further contended that this de jure and de facto status was subsequently reaffirmed by UN General Assembly Resolution 2758 of 1971. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs promptly issued a statement categorically repudiating these assertions. In addition to the reasons put forward by the ministry, I believe that China’s assertions are open to questions in international
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