Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised that he would bring peace to Kashmir. Tuesday’s terror attack that killed at least 26 people at a popular tourist destination shows how misguided he was — when long-suffering grievances are not addressed, they erupt.
Modi has condemned the violence, saying those behind it “will not be spared,” and cut short a trip to Saudi Arabia to deal with the unfolding crisis. Schools and shops in the Muslim-majority province are closed in response to what Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah described as one of the largest attacks on civilians in recent years.
This is not an isolated event. There has been a spate of incidents, far less publicized, that show militant violence never subsided — contradicting Modi’s claims that normalcy has returned under his leadership.
Kashmir is anything but normal — it is one of the world’s most heavily militarized zones.
The region’s modern-day crisis has its roots in the bloody partition of 1947, when British-ruled India was divided into two independent nations: India and Pakistan. The regions of Jammu and Kashmir had the opportunity to choose which side they would eventually accede to, Hindu-dominated India or Muslim-majority Pakistan.
Initially Kashmir’s monarch sought independence, but ultimately he agreed to join India. The eventual outcome was a unique arrangement under Article 370, which granted Kashmir special semi-autonomous status, its own constitution and even a separate flag.
India and Pakistan — both nuclear-armed nations — have fought several conflicts since independence and Kashmir has been at the heart of them. Thousands, including civilians, army, police and militants, have died in the process, either as a result of counterinsurgency exercises or terrorist attacks. Ending that cycle of violence is the reason Modi and Indian Minister of Home Affairs Amit Shah gave when they revoked the state’s special status in 2019.
“The peace that has come to Jammu and Kashmir has to be converted into permanent peace,” Shah said on Feb. 24.
The attack at Pahalgam, about 90km east of the capital, Srinagar, shows that has not materialized.
While it is not immediately clear who was responsible, this is sure to cause tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad. The Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs voiced concern at the loss of tourists’ lives and extended condolences to their families, while Pakistani Minister of Defense Khawaja Asif told local media that Islamabad has no link to the attack. As an opening salvo, India moved to suspend a decades-old water treaty with Islamabad and downgrade diplomatic ties.
Modi had justified revoking Kashmir’s autonomy by saying it was about boosting its economy, but despite grand claims from his Bharatiya Janata Party, there have been limited investments in the territory. If anything, Kashmiris have become even more disempowered during his tenure.
In a region fortified with hundreds of thousands of troops, they have had to deal with rising anti-Islamism and policies aimed at changing the province’s demographics by encouraging Hindu settlers. They are also facing the potential loss of jobs and land ownership rights, while living with relentless interrogations and repressive media policies.
India uses restrictive travel bans and arbitrary detentions under stringent anti-terror laws to intimidate critical dissenting voices from speaking out, Amnesty International said last year ahead of the first regional elections in the past decade. These long-standing grievances came to a head during that poll. Voter turnout was an impressive 63.8 percent, and the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, the largest political party opposed to India’s revoking Kashmir’s semi-autonomy, won the most seats.
This attack provides an opportunity for New Delhi to address some of these long-simmering issues. Modi’s first instinct would be to further shutter the region. That would be a mistake. All the curbs he put in place in 2019, including the prolonged suspension of Internet services, the detention of political leaders and a strict lockdown, just bred more resentment. Those measures were gradually lifted, but the damage was done.
Modi might be tempted to allow anti-Muslim sentiment to continue running unchecked in mainstream and social media. Again, that would be unwise — he should act as a leader for all Indians and issue a call for restraint. Instead, India has vowed to retaliate, with Shah saying that the nation would not “bend to terror.” Cooler heads should prevail.
Karishma Vaswani is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asian politics with a special focus on China. Previously, she was the BBC’s lead Asia presenter, and worked for the BBC across Asia and South Asia for two decades. This column reflects the personal views of the author and does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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