The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again.
That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
Xi in 2017 did announce a PLA modernization timeline to improve combat readiness, including saying that by 2027 — the 100th anniversary of the founding of the PLA — China must achieve its goal and “comprehensively improve our strategic capabilities to defend national sovereignty, security and development interests.” That has been considered as the first possible deadline for China to take Taiwan by force.
Another year of a possible Chinese foray across the Taiwan Strait is 2035, the year China set to complete the modernization of the PLA, or by 2049, the timeline set for the PLA to fully upgrade into a “world-class military,” aiming to challenge the US’ leading global position to achieve China’s “national rejuvenation.”
Experts in recent years have raised questions about a possible invasion in 2027. Some analysts said that given the economic downturn and the deteriorating international environment, unifying Taiwan might not be Xi’s top priority. Considering the preparatory contingency investments by Taiwan, the US, Japan and other Asian countries likely opposing China’s objective, an invasion of Taiwan would be a risky and costly move. In addition, Xi since 2023 has waged a sweeping campaign against deep-seated government corruption, which has resulted in the purging of nearly two dozen military officials. The moves might also reflect a concern that corrupt practices are blocking the military’s capabilities and readiness to be able to invade within short time.
Former US CIA director William Burns said that the assertion that China’s military would be ready for an invasion by 2027 does not mean that Xi has decided to invade that year or any other year, but as “it’s a reminder of the seriousness of his focus and his ambition,” those timetables should be warnings that Taipei and Washington should waste no time in preparing for that possibility. Since the PLA has expanded its military presence beyond its domain and triggered territorial confrontations with countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the reality that China’s pursuit of large-scale military capabilities is a severe threat not only to Taiwan, but also to international security in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond should not be overlooked.
Using China’s timeline as a reference for defense strategy, Taiwan has long put effort into yearly increases to the defense budget and enhancing military preparedness. This year’s Han Kuang drill would for the first time focus on China’s “gray zone” blockade tactics and simulate defending the nation against a possible attack in the next one or two years, aimed at deterring China from “turning exercise into war.”
Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo (顧立雄) said: “Taiwan has never underestimated the threat from China and has prepared countermeasures against it,” adding that Taiwanese forces have always maintained “high combat readiness.”
As the US’ latest Annual Threat Assessment reaffirmed China as the top military threat to the US, and that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait would have significant consequences to global economic and security interests, the US, Taiwan and the international community should reinforce cooperative operations to establish regional and global security.
Preparedness is the best deterrence to conflict, and action should be taken not only for 2027, but also for the longer term.
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