In an attempt to counter the mass recall movement, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) plans to launch an “anti-martial law, anti-war” referendum campaign. However, the main text of the referendum proposal is not only logically flawed, but also contravenes the Referendum Act (公民投票法). The following is an analysis of the proposal from logical and legal perspectives.
The main text of the so-called “anti-martial law” referendum proposal states that President William Lai (賴清德) has labeled China as a “foreign hostile force” and that it has raised concerns among the public that the cross-strait relationship might enter a “quasi-war.”
It reads: “Do you agree that the government should avoid war and prevent Taiwan from becoming another Ukraine, where martial law is imposed, young lives are lost and homes are destroyed?”
In logical reasoning, there exists a concept: “If P, then Q,” where “P” is the premise of a situation and “Q” is the conclusion that follows this premise. If the premise “P” is true, then the conclusion “Q” must also be true, so we would call that proposition “true.” However, if the premise “P” is true, but the conclusion “Q” is not true, then the proposition is considered “false.”
The key point here is that Lai’s labeling of China as a “foreign hostile force” does not logically lead to the conclusion that the public is concerned about the cross-strait situation entering a state of “quasi-war.” After all, the Chinese Communist Party’s aggressive behavior — conducting “united front” infiltration, sending military aircraft and ships to harass Taiwan daily and refusing to abandon its ambition of forcibly annexing Taiwan — existed long before Lai made his statement.
Since his statement does not logically lead to the conclusion that China and Taiwan would be pushed into a “quasi-war,” the referendum’s subsequent conclusion of Taiwan “becoming another Ukraine, where martial law is imposed, young lives are lost and homes are destroyed” is naturally unfounded.
Therefore, the referendum proposal clearly presents a “false” proposition.
According to the regulations in Article 9 of the Referendum Act, the main text of a referendum proposal must not imply negative connotations or use leading phrases. The content of the KMT’s “anti-martial law” referendum proposal says China has been labeled as a “foreign hostile force” — that is a fact.
However, it then deliberately connects that to a “quasi-war,” and wants to avoid a war between Taiwan and China, and prevent Taiwan from becoming “another Ukraine, where martial law is imposed, young lives are lost and homes are destroyed.”
Making that connection clearly contravenes the Referendum Act’s prohibition on implying negative connotations and using leading phrases in a referendum proposal.
The KMT’s strategy is to tie its referendum to the recall vote, encouraging voters to simultaneously support the referendum and vote “no” on the recall.
However, using leading statements and misleading rhetoric in the referendum proposal in an attempt to confuse voters would only add more fuel to the recall fire.
Yeh Yu-cheng is a secretary at the Pingtung County Public Health Bureau.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
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