In an attempt to counter the mass recall movement, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) plans to launch an “anti-martial law, anti-war” referendum campaign. However, the main text of the referendum proposal is not only logically flawed, but also contravenes the Referendum Act (公民投票法). The following is an analysis of the proposal from logical and legal perspectives.
The main text of the so-called “anti-martial law” referendum proposal states that President William Lai (賴清德) has labeled China as a “foreign hostile force” and that it has raised concerns among the public that the cross-strait relationship might enter a “quasi-war.”
It reads: “Do you agree that the government should avoid war and prevent Taiwan from becoming another Ukraine, where martial law is imposed, young lives are lost and homes are destroyed?”
In logical reasoning, there exists a concept: “If P, then Q,” where “P” is the premise of a situation and “Q” is the conclusion that follows this premise. If the premise “P” is true, then the conclusion “Q” must also be true, so we would call that proposition “true.” However, if the premise “P” is true, but the conclusion “Q” is not true, then the proposition is considered “false.”
The key point here is that Lai’s labeling of China as a “foreign hostile force” does not logically lead to the conclusion that the public is concerned about the cross-strait situation entering a state of “quasi-war.” After all, the Chinese Communist Party’s aggressive behavior — conducting “united front” infiltration, sending military aircraft and ships to harass Taiwan daily and refusing to abandon its ambition of forcibly annexing Taiwan — existed long before Lai made his statement.
Since his statement does not logically lead to the conclusion that China and Taiwan would be pushed into a “quasi-war,” the referendum’s subsequent conclusion of Taiwan “becoming another Ukraine, where martial law is imposed, young lives are lost and homes are destroyed” is naturally unfounded.
Therefore, the referendum proposal clearly presents a “false” proposition.
According to the regulations in Article 9 of the Referendum Act, the main text of a referendum proposal must not imply negative connotations or use leading phrases. The content of the KMT’s “anti-martial law” referendum proposal says China has been labeled as a “foreign hostile force” — that is a fact.
However, it then deliberately connects that to a “quasi-war,” and wants to avoid a war between Taiwan and China, and prevent Taiwan from becoming “another Ukraine, where martial law is imposed, young lives are lost and homes are destroyed.”
Making that connection clearly contravenes the Referendum Act’s prohibition on implying negative connotations and using leading phrases in a referendum proposal.
The KMT’s strategy is to tie its referendum to the recall vote, encouraging voters to simultaneously support the referendum and vote “no” on the recall.
However, using leading statements and misleading rhetoric in the referendum proposal in an attempt to confuse voters would only add more fuel to the recall fire.
Yeh Yu-cheng is a secretary at the Pingtung County Public Health Bureau.
Translated by Kyra Gustavsen
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS