There are plenty of theories on why US President Donald Trump did what he did: Calling Russian President Vladimir Putin a “genius” and “savvy” to invade Ukraine in 2022, calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy a dictator, proposing to take over Gaza and Greenland, damaging its treasured relationships with Canada, Mexico and Europe, and voting with dictators at the UN — essentially flipping US foreign policy since World War II, harming democratic alliances by pausing US military aid and intelligence to Ukraine.
Trump might be a “negotiation genius,” but those actions raised suspicion and led to US Senator Jeff Merkley questioning whether he could be a Russian asset.
Setting speculation aside, trying to isolate China by cozying up to Russia — considered the “Nixon reverse” — would unfortunately not work. In fact, former US president Richard Nixon created a worse enemy by playing the China card against the Soviet Union. China, which is likely to overtake the US as the top GDP nation in the years to come, has become the greatest threat to the world’s democracy.
China and Russia would continue to be close for so long as they are authoritarian. Moreover, by letting Russia loose now, the threat to Europe would be postponed, but not eliminated, until Russia recovers from its war in Ukraine. Next time, the war would be even harder to fight. That might be the most contentious point Zelenskiy is concerned about. Even if a peace treaty is signed, security cannot be warranted. In fact, the 1994 Budapest Memorandum failed to protect Ukraine, even though it gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for exactly that.
Former Polish president Lech Walesa, who won a Nobel Peace Prize for his pro-democracy efforts, said that without US commitment, it would have been impossible to break up the Soviet Union. He said that “[former US] president [Ronald] Reagan was aware that millions of enslaved people were suffering in Soviet Russia and the countries it conquered, including thousands of political prisoners who paid for their sacrifice in defense of democratic values with freedom.”
Reagan had the vision and leadership to call USSR the “Evil Empire” without hesitation, and his greatness is admired every day, as his statue stands in Warsaw vis-a-vis the US embassy, he said.
Former US general David Petraeus said that Russia’s military is on the verge of collapse.
In August last year, when Ukraine entered Kursk, 30,000 Russian soldiers were taken from Ukraine to defend its territory, as the internal force failed to do so, he said. Moreover, it also relies on inexperienced and poorly trained conscripts to fight. The morale is low, and the war is now fought on Ukraine’s terms.
Europe has a military stronger in numbers than that of Russia, but lacks unity and synchronization. By adding the strength of US, there is no doubt that Russia could be dismantled in months.
Russia’s economy is quickly deteriorating and civil wars are around the corner. The tyrannical Putin cannot sustain a prolonged war.
Only by reforming Russia to be democratic, similar to Japan and Germany after World War II, could peace and security be guaranteed for Ukraine and Europe. Breaking up Russia into a few democratic countries would forever bury Russian imperialism in history. That would truly isolate China. If Trump wants to be a great leader in the history books, it is time for him to help defeat and break up Russia, just as when the Soviet Union was broken up by Reagan.
If Europe goes alone to bring Putin to his knees and breaks up Russia, history would record it as the moment Europe took up the leadership of humanity and the democratic alliance, and the US would no longer be a world leader.
James J. Y. Hsu is a retired professor of theoretical physics.
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