The possibility of restarting cross-strait tourism for tour groups appears to not only be back on the table, but nearing dessert. President William Lai (賴清德) in his inaugural address emphasized tourism as an area where Taipei is keen to cooperate with Beijing, positing it as a cornerstone of his softer cross-strait policies. On Jan. 17, Beijing announced that it would allow residents of Shanghai and Fujian Province to visit Taiwan. Shanghai Vice Mayor Hua Yuan (華源) also said during the Taipei-Shanghai Twin-City Forum in December last year that he would promote Taiwan as a travel destination for residents of his city — comments he would not have made without the go-ahead from his superiors.
Among all the anticipation, the Mainland Affairs Council has been steadfast in insisting that discussions proceed through the two organizations set up expressly to handle the matter: China’s Association for Tourism Exchange Across the Taiwan Straits and the Taiwan Strait Tourism Association of Taiwan. Coordination through these bodies is essential, as restarting tourism is not as simple as flipping a switch.
Cross-strait relations have changed since Beijing suspended tourism before the COVID-19 pandemic. Beijing has become more bellicose in its willingness to weaponize military maneuvers, economic sanctions and any other means to cow Taiwan for any perceived slight, including tourism. Even with extensive negotiations, Beijing would not hesitate to hoist tourism as a cudgel again. The best chance of softening its impact would be through careful planning.
The biggest concern is for the safety of Taiwanese visiting China, which has become more tenuous than in 2019. Beijing last year announced 22 guidelines to penalize “diehard Taiwanese independence separatists,” which include the death penalty. According to the National Security Bureau, more Taiwanese have been detained or faced trials in China since changes to its National Security Law made such interrogations easier. There is no guarantee that tourists would be safe.
Quality of tourism is also a major factor. Critics of the continued ban have decried its impact on the tourism sector, but allowing cross-strait tourism would not inevitably equate to increased revenue for travel-related businesses. It was not long ago that Chinese tour groups flooded the nation’s major travel destinations, bolstered by the China-centric tourism policies of former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九). Most were organized by so-called “one-stop shop” tour agencies based in China, which negotiated for terrible deals with local vendors while keeping most of the revenue in China. The quality of some of the nation’s most popular destinations such as Sun Moon Lake and the National Palace Museum was eroded by their presence, curtailing the willingness of domestic or other international travelers to visit. Without another option, businesses had to accept the terrible deals offered by these agencies. Swinging the doors open wide once again to these agencies would risk eroding the gains seen in other markets in the past few years, all while failing to benefit local industry.
And gains have been made. Of the 10.69 million international visitors in 2016, 3.51 million — nearly one-third — were from China. Last year, there were a total of 7.85 million foreign visitors, admittedly shy of the 10 million target as post-pandemic travel continues to rebound, and the April earthquake and Chinese military drills kept travelers away. Yet as of November, only 377,499 were from China — only about 5 percent of the total at the time. Arrival goals might not have been reached yet, but the trend is clear and encouraging. Travelers from other countries also tend to spend more while here, proving that greater numbers do not always equal more economic opportunity.
Restarting tourism would be a welcome development for people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, but the administration is right to approach with caution for the sake of personal safety, national security and business interests.
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