Mon, Feb 10, 2025 page8

• The state of the Chinese economy

  • By Carol Lin 林志潔
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  Looking at the state of China’s economy this year, many experts have said that weak domestic demand and insufficient internal consumption might be its Achilles’ heel, with the latter being related to culture and demographics.

  Since Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) took office in 2013, he has been combating extravagance and corruption as well as rectifying a bad atmosphere. China expert Stephen Roach said the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) regulatory crackdown has been targeting Chinese tycoons, such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd founder Jack Ma (馬雲), and opposing what the CCP defines as “excessively extravagant lifestyles,” such as playing too much video games and “toxic” fan culture. Such state-led social engineering shows that Beijing cannot tolerate the possibilities and optimism that are in the DNA of Western consumer societies. So it is in contradiction with itself by opposing and stimulating consumption at the same time.

  China’s population structure has changed dramatically in the past five years, as it has been battling a declining birthrate and an aging population, which has weakened the labor force and increased production costs. That has also forced changes in the retirement system. Starting this year, the retirement age of 60 for men and 55 for women are to be gradually extended to 63 and 58 respectively.

  At the opening of the 13th National Women’s Congress on Oct. 23, 2023, Xi told CCP officials that they have the responsibility to “strengthen young people’s concepts of marriage, childbirth and family,” so as to reshape Chinese women’s “new three concepts,” and “actively cultivate a new type of marriage and childbirth culture” in China.

  For more than a year, CCP officials have worked hard to implement Xi’s instructions to save the country from the trends of intense birthrate decline and rapid societal aging. From 2022 to 2023, China’s total population decreased by 2.1 million people. Ever since then, various measures have been taken to push and persuade women to have children, with local governments making phone calls and home visits to inquire about women’s menstrual periods and childbirth plans, which have brought about numerous public complaints.

  Today, the CCP is asking women to return to families and lose their sense of individuality, characterizing their main roles as wives and mothers. When the new generation of Chinese women heard Xi’s solution to the problem, they must have felt like it was some imperial edict from the Qing Dynasty.

  It is hard to imagine how a leader who is so out of touch with the times can prescribe an effective remedy for the problem. With women’s self-awareness, the rising costs of raising children, involution, unfriendly workplaces and a pervasive traditional patriarchal culture, it is no wonder that almost every Chinese TV drama in recent years involves divorce scenarios. Relying on feudal viewpoints from the Qing Dynasty to solve gender issues in the era of artificial intelligence (AI) is like “climbing a tree to catch fish” (緣木求魚), as the old Chinese idiom goes.

  China’s economy is also under tremendous pressure from the new policies of US President Donald Trump. As for Taiwan, the country should not underestimate itself. In addition to preserving its advantages in semiconductor technology, it should also carry out its industrial deployment and reduce its reliance on Chinese investment to open up a niche in the AI era.

  Carol Lin is a professor at National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University’s school of technology law.

  Translated by Eddy Chang
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