South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol’s sudden declaration of martial law led to the South Korean National Assembly holding an emergency session to force Yoon to rescind his order.
The US Department of State responded by noting that it was not given any advance warning by the South Korean presidential office, reaffirming its support for the people of South Korea and the US-South Korea alliance based on shared principles of democracy and rule of law, and saying that the US government hopes the South Korean government can peacefully resolve its internal political disagreements.
US President Joe Biden’s administration is not picking a side in South Korea’s internal affairs. This is not a good development for Yoon, whose administration is already weakened. The US Department of State’s carefully worded message of support indicates that the US would only support politicians who adhere to the democratic rule of law.
The US is of course deeply concerned about South Korean political affairs not only because of the potential damage to their bilateral ties and shared values, or the impact on US-South Korean cooperation in multiple international areas. Equally important is the US’ need to remain highly vigilant during times of instability, as North Korea could take advantage to escalate military tensions, plunging the Korean peninsula and potentially all of northeast Asia into chaos, severely harming US national interests.
The hermit kingdom’s military has about 1.1 million active-duty personnel, with about 70 percent of them deployed between Pyongyang and the demilitarized zone that runs along the border of the two Koreas. Despite the alliance having fewer personnel than those potentially fielded by North Korea, Washington and Seoul clearly have the superior military force. However, conventional North Korean missiles could reach Seoul — a target with a population of about 25 million — within just five minutes.
Moreover, North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. Only one such weapon would need to evade interception for metropolitan Seoul’s population to suffer an almost unimaginable fate.
North Korea and Russia’s comprehensive strategic partnership came into effect last month and includes bilateral promises to come to the aid of the other if they come under attack. This has raised the complexity and difficulty in predicting potential military risk in the wake of this week’s political tumult.
Complicating matters further are the more than 100,000 US expatriates residing in South Korea. If Yoon’s declaration of martial law leads to North Korean miscalculations and a vast escalation of threats, the US government would need to consider evacuating its citizens. This is a major factor in Washington’s close watch on South Korean political affairs. The US government’s evacuation of US expatriates would be obligatory and implemented using its superior military and diplomatic strength.
Following Yoon’s announcement lifting martial law early on Wednesday morning, the US embassy in Seoul sent out an advisory to US citizens in South Korea advising them to “monitor local news media and follow the guidance of government officials and local authorities.”
US president-elect Donald Trump has already added several unpredictable variables to Biden’s painstakingly built leaders’ summit between the US, Japan and South Korea, and the soon-to-be-established trilateral secretariat responsible for coordinating among the three countries. Should Yoon step down before this office is created, the security structure could temporarily hit a stumbling block.
Huang Kwei-bo is Secretary-General of the Association of Foreign Relations and a professor in the Department of Diplomacy at National Chengchi University.
Translated by Tim Smith
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