To understand the population pressures on African nations, the Nigerian trend known as Japa offers some insight. The Yoruba slang term meaning “to flee” describes the exodus of highly educated professionals migrating to the West.
While much of the world grapples with an aging population, the looming demographic challenge for Africa lies in the multitude of young people who lack viable livelihoods and the drain on economies that their departure creates.
By 2050, one in four people on the planet would be African. While fertility rates across the continent are declining, they are not falling as dramatically as those in regions such as East Asia, where some governments describe their low birth rate as a “national emergency.” Each year, 10 million to 12 million young Africans enter the workforce, but only about three million formal jobs are available.
Illustration: Kevin Sheu
The UN projects that half of the increase in global population by 2050 would be concentrated in just eight countries, five of which are in Africa: Nigeria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia and Tanzania. Adding to that challenge, Nigeria has one of the world’s youngest populations: about 70 percent are under 30 and 42 percent are under the age of 15.
The challenge here for governments and communities is how to harness that wave of youthful talent — with all their innovation, resilience and determination — rather than lose them to developed economies.
The Nigerian Afrobeats song Canada describes the tension. Performed by Magnito and featuring Olamide and Wizzy Flon, the lyrics say: “You and I know that since the time they tried to colonize Africa, we never benefited from any of these countries. You and I know that the only country that is benefiting Nigerian youth is Canada.”
Nigeria in 2022 was Canada’s fourth top immigration source country with more than 120,000 settling in the North American nation, which is struggling with an aging population and a shrinking labor force. Those who leave continue to feel strong ties to home, with remittances from Africans abroad standing at US$100 billion in 2022, double 2012 figures.
I cannot fault anyone who chooses to seek better opportunities abroad. People naturally gravitate toward places where systems function reliably. Even if taxes are higher, they know they would gain access to quality, affordable healthcare, education and retirement benefits.
Japa is a problem for governments across the continent. There are, for example, more Ghanaian nurses working in the UK than in Ghana. Since 2017, about 75,000 nurses have left Nigeria, and the World Health Organization projects that by 2030, sub-Saharan Africa could face a shortage of 5.3 million healthcare workers. Additionally, many engineers, particularly those aged 45 to 60, are leaving. This exodus comes at a critical time: Those graduates come from economies that demand robust infrastructure and urban development that would benefit from local expertise. The trend is unsustainable and risks repeating a similar drain of skilled workers from Asia.
For the majority of Africa’s urban populations, the real battle is economic. Many are just one unexpected event away from losing the hard-won gains made in the past two generations. Governments have much more to do to create an environment that encourages people to stay. The Gen Z protests that gripped Kenya earlier this year reveal a deep-seated frustration that has been simmering among the nation’s youth for some time. Kenyan President William Ruto’s administration, which passed austerity measures associated with an International Monetary Fund bailout onto citizens, must adopt a new strategy that addresses demonstrators’ concerns about a lack of jobs, rising taxes and soaring prices. Eliminating corruption is essential.
I live on a young continent. I just turned 40, a milestone that when measured against the demographics of Kenya — my country, where the average age is just under 20 — feels ancient. My paternal grandmother, who bore nine children, would be astonished to learn that in urban Nairobi having two children has become the norm. The birth rate here has declined to 3.3 per woman in 2022 from 7.6 in 1960. She might wonder how those earning significantly more than she ever did feel unable to afford larger families.
For her, raising multiple children was not just a choice: It provided a beacon of hope for a better future. My grandmother lived to 104, and was the last of her generation to grow up before colonial powers arrived in Kenya. She endured the fallout from two world wars, witnessed the nation’s struggle for independence, and ultimately lived and died in a free country.
Times are changing, and as more Kenyans join the middle class, concerns about the quality of life they can provide for their family weighs heavily. While those in the West worry about the cost of childcare, my peers are preoccupied with ensuring access to quality education, healthcare and opportunities for their children to thrive in an increasingly globalized world. Many in their mid-20s-to-30s are only the second generation with real access to family planning.
The continent is experiencing a new wave of migration — not out of desperation, but out of frustration, DIASPORA founder and Nigerian-American journalist Chika Oduah said. Her father’s generation went to the US in the late 1970s to escape a military dictatorship, a very different motivation to the economic opportunities people are chasing now.
“Migration is a continuum,” she said. “Would someone like my father have the same experiences, the same concerns, that someone who just left Africa five years ago to the West have?”
The combination of population pressures and poor employment prospects also contribute to the plight of tens of thousands of migrants who risk their lives each year on the perilous Mediterranean and Atlantic routes.
The number of migrants who either died or went missing during these ocean crossings increased by 44 percent last year compared with 2022, minutes from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) parliament meeting in July showed.
“Our population is increasing, but as a continent we are still trying to figure out what to do with all these young people,” Liberian politician and ECOWAS parliament member Taa Wongbe said. “Every year we have tens of thousands of people get on boats just to leave their countries and move to another.”
There are ways to stem the flow. African governments must expedite the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area that has the potential to inject an additional US$450 billion to the region’s economy by 2035 and generate better job opportunities. The continent also needs to move from being an exporter of raw materials to processing. Countries such as Ghana and Ivory Coast, which together produce 60 percent of the world’s cocoa, receive only 6 percent of the export revenues from the US$138 billion industry.
Transitions in society are often messy, chaotic and risky, yet one cannot fault a generation that feels abandoned by their governments.
The private sector can thrive with appropriate incentives. Innovation relies on tapping the continent’s vast reservoir of youthful talent, while encouraging skilled workers who have gained experience abroad to return home. If African governments remain indifferent, they would miss out on invaluable progress.
As I look at my 4-year-old daughter, I hope for a world of global opportunities, but one where she only has to leave her country (and continent) out of choice, not necessity. As a Sudanese proverb goes, “We wish two things for our children: The first is roots; the second is wings.”
Ciku Kimeria is an author, journalist, communication specialist and travel writer. She was previously Africa editor at Quartz.
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