Numerous expert analyses characterize today’s US presidential election as a risk for Taiwan, given that the two major candidates, US Vice President Kamala Harris and former US president Donald Trump, are perceived to possess divergent foreign policy perspectives.
If Harris is elected, many presume that the US would maintain its existing relationship with Taiwan, as established through the American Institute in Taiwan, and would continue to sell Taiwan weapons and equipment to help it defend itself against China.
Under the administration of US President Joe Biden, whose political views Harris shares, the US on Oct. 25 authorized arms transfers to Taiwan, another in a series of sales this year. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs verified receipt of official notification from the US government concerning the US$1.988 billion sale of the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System and AN/TPS-77 and AN/TPS-78 radar turnkey systems.
Evidence suggests that the US support for Taiwan would continue under a Harris administration. However, concerns persist that if Trump returns to the White House for a second time, his “America First” slogan might lead the US to distance itself from Taiwan.
That apprehension was highlighted in a recent interview on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast, in which Trump asserted that Taiwan should finance US military protection and accused it of “stealing” US semiconductor business. His comments elicited fears that Taiwan could be perceived as an “expendable” asset in the US political strategy under Trump, and it appears to have aroused caution in Taiwan concerning the status of one of its vital allies.
The question is whether Washington would readily divert its attention from Taiwan, but that would never happen due to the US and Taiwan’s relationship of mutual dependence.
Taiwan ranks as the US’ 10th-largest trading partner. In 2020, the aggregate value of trade between the nations amounted to approximately US$90.9 billion. The US is also Taiwan’s second-largest commercial partner.
Taiwan is a significant buyer of military equipment from the US, consistently positioned among the top countries for US arms customers. In addition to last month’s approved sales, the Biden administration had earlier this year approved a total of US$963.2 million in defense and related equipment sales. Those sales affirm Taiwan’s status as a significant customer of the US defense sector.
If Trump wins the US presidential election, he would likely reconsider his remarks suggesting the US divert its focus from Taiwan to China. The reality is that the US is economically and militarily tied to Taiwan, and Washington would undoubtedly seek to retain one of its primary defense industry customers.
In addition to the favorable economic partnerships are the geopolitical factors. Communist ideology would never align with the US’ interests. Washington would find greater comfort in reinforcing Taiwan as part of its strategy to control communist ideology in East Asia. The US would invariably support Taiwan, regardless of who occupies the White House.
M. Syaprin Zahidi is a senior lecturer in the Department of International Relations at the University of Muhammadiyah Malang and is a doctoral student at Ghazali Shafie Graduate School of Government at the Universiti Utara Malaysia.
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