Sat, Oct 19, 2024 page9

• The denim bubble is bound to pop soon

  Jeans are trendy again, but fashion industry trends can be treacherous

  • By Andrea Felsted / Bloomberg Opinion
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  In Beyonce’s first ad for Levi Strauss & Co, she walks into a laundromat with a bucket of diamonds and pours them into the washer to stonewash her jeans.

  However, hauling that precious cargo is not the only heavy lifting Beyonce, who shouted out the brand in her song Levii’s Jeans, must do for the retailer.

  Even as new CEO Michelle Gass seeks to revive the company, we might be approaching peak denim. We are probably even nearer to the summit of a trend that has driven the latest revival of the wardrobe classic: bigger, baggier and wider jeans, which sparked a gold rush for apparel chains, as men and women who adopted the style rushed to buy coordinating tops and footwear.

  Retailers need to capitalize on denim’s revival — led by jeans, but also including skirts, shirts and jackets — before the fabric moves from a hot must-have back to its more traditional role as a dependable outfit staple. Equally, store chains must adjust their ranges at the first signs of jean leg circumferences shrinking again.

  For the past few years, denim has been having a serious fashion moment.

  As we emerged from COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns, we threw off our sweats and embraced proper clothes. Jeans, working equally well with a matching shirt or tailored jacket, were perfect. Yet we were reluctant to squeeze back into tight pants. Hence a more generous fit, which had been bubbling under for several years, moved into the mainstream.

  Loose and baggy styles were the best-selling US women’s jeans in the 12 months to the end of August, according to research group Circana. Baggy is also the fastest-selling men’s look on US and UK retailers’ Web sites this fall, according to retail intelligence company EDITED.

  Although Levi pared back its revenue guidance for this year, the Levi’s brand (the company also owns Dockers and Beyond Yoga) enjoyed its best sales growth in two years in fiscal third quarter, led by loose fits and the classic 501.

  The shift from skinny to slouchy has juiced sales of more fitted tops to balance out the bottom-heavy silhouette. Slim or front-tucked sweaters work with the look — likely a factor in driving US sweater sales up 7 percent in the 12 months to the end of August, according to Circana data. Jackets have become shorter and boxier. The number of US and UK retailers including “boxy” in their marketing e-mails is up 11 percent year-on-year, according to EDITED.

  When it comes to footwear, wide-leg jeans tend to swamp shoes and boots. Some styles, such as the barrel, with its tapered ankle, and those with exaggerated turn-ups, have driven a switch back to kitten heels, ballet flats and loafers. Baggy fits generally work best with a sneaker, particularly Adidas AG’s Samba, perhaps one of the reasons the German sportswear company is outperforming Nike Inc.

  However, just as retailers and shoppers have settled into a gargantuan groove, styles might be about to pivot once more.

  Ever since Miu Miu sent skinny jeans down the catwalk in March, fashion commentators have heralded the return of the slimmer fit. This momentum has continued: The number of posts from the spring/summer 2025 catwalks that trend forecasters at WGSN tagged with #SkinnyJeans jumped almost 500 percent year-on-year, although admittedly from a small base. The demonizing of skinny has certainly ended, with second-hand marketplace Depop noting a 33 percent increase in “skinny” searches since January, inspired by the “Indie Sleaze” aesthetic characterized by model Kate Moss in the 2000s. Given that pants have been super-sizing since around 2021, it is inevitable that the fashion forward crowd is moving on.

  Although some women are rediscovering calf-skimming styles, they have yet to be adopted more broadly — aside from denim capri pants this summer. Younger people in particular remain wedded to wide. For other generations, slimmer cuts are becoming serious competition. The fastest-selling women’s jean across online retailers in the US and the UK this summer and into the fall has been straight, EDITED said, followed by baggy. This suggests interest in a more streamlined look, indicating that the days of ever-expanding leg circumferences are numbered.

  A shift away from the once humble workwear staple cannot be ruled out either.

  So far the broad denim category is still selling well. New stock for men and women arriving on retailers’ Web sites in the US and UK for fall is up 30 percent compared with last year, EDITED said. The number of new styles that are selling out in the majority of sizes is up 51 percent, indicative of continued demand.

  Yet designers have recently started to emphasize more athletic or sporty looks again, such as Miu Miu’s track jackets and windcheaters.

  In the coming months, we could see more of an intermingling of styles — rather than the sort of head-to-toe athleisure we wore during the pandemic or the subsequent rush into denim.

  Lots of different trends happening simultaneously could be good for all retailers and breathe life back into chains that have been taken a backseat to jeans, such as Lululemon Athletica Inc. With a range of looks to choose from, there is more incentive to buy a new outfit, and there is likely to be something that suits all ages and body shapes. For example, if slim does make a comeback, but wider legs hang around, women might want several pairs of jeans to try different silhouettes.

  This cross-fade fashion moment is also treacherous. The risk is that retailers back the wrong fit or fabric, requiring them to mark down unwanted stock, eating into profit. When it comes to denim, the market moves at a glacial pace — until it does not. When that sudden change comes, those with the nimblest supply chains, such as Inditex SA’s Zara, are in the strongest position to react.

  Carefully monitoring what is selling would be even more important than usual. Paying attention to other signals, from runway shows to TikTok trends, entertainment and even the economy might also help spot the next zeitgeist.

  Having the right advice in stores and online to accompany each silhouette could encourage customers to buy, too. Booming sales of wider legs, which some shoppers found challenging to style, proved the value of providing that guidance. Women — and men — would likely be looking for help avoiding an overly retro look as slim fits return (one clue: For women the new skinny is more polished with great boots and accessories.)

  Or, as one particularly acidic Vogue headline from earlier this year put it: “How to Wear Skinny Jeans and Not Look Tragic.”

  Andrea Felsted is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering consumer goods and the retail industry. Previously, she was a reporter for the Financial Times.

  This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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