In 2014, then-Indonesian presidential hopeful and outsider Joko Widodo attended packed campaigns with a white ribbon warning against election fraud tied around his head.
At the time Jokowi — as the Indonesian president is widely known — symbolized democracy and change, embodying the hope of a better, cleaner Indonesia.
After two terms and one decade in power, he has left an indelible mark on the nation of 280 million, presiding over a period of strong economic growth and massive infrastructure development.
However, critics say his rule has also been marked by a rise in old-time patronage and dynastic politics, and the diminished integrity of courts and other state institutions.
Analysts say the trend might continue under Indonesian president-elect Prabowo Subianto, a member of the old elite that ruled Indonesia before Jokowi and a former special forces commander who was dismissed from the military amid speculation of human rights abuses, assertions he has denied.
In this year’s presidential election, Jokowi turned his back on his own party’s candidate and helped secure a win for Prabowo, who had chosen Jokowi’s son as his vice president.
“Widodo has done a lot of damage to democratization in recent years,” political analyst Kevin O’Rourke said. “It’s hard to see how the recovery can come about.”
For a man once celebrated for his lack of ties to Indonesia’s powerful military and civilian oligarchs, Jokowi leaves office facing accusations he has tried to change laws to benefit his family and co-opt state bodies to control his opponents.
Spokespeople for the president’s office did not respond to requests for comment.
Jokowi in July said that democracy was thriving in the country, citing the holding of elections and freedom of speech.
Once a furniture manufacturer in the city of Surakarta, Jokowi rose from mayor of the city to governor of Jakarta Special Region before he was elected president in 2014, defeating Prabowo.
He beat Prabowo again when he was re-elected in 2019, but then made him his defense minister.
When Jokowi steps down on Sunday, his legacy would importantly include leaving Indonesia in the hands of Prabowo, the former son-in-law of authoritarian ruler Suharto and the son of a former Cabinet minister.
“He’s brought about the empowerment of Prabowo and that’s already jeopardizing Indonesia’s democratic institutions,” O’Rourke said.
Prabowo has in the past advocated returning to an earlier version of the constitution where the president is not directly elected by the people.
Indonesia adopted term limits after Suharto’s three-decade rule, marred by corruption and nepotism, ended in 1998 amid the economic and political chaos triggered by the Asian economic crisis.
In March, Prabowo described democracy as tiring, costly and messy, but he has not recently referred to reviving the old constitution.
It was with great promise that Jokowi came to power a decade ago, hailed at the time as a man capable of making real change.
For the first term he did, former deputy chief of staff Yanuar Nugroho said.
“Jokowi’s first period is when he really delivered what he promised,” he said, including an improved national health insurance scheme, which now covers more than 90 percent of the population, and mammoth infrastructure development.
During the Jokowi years, Indonesia posted solid economic growth and low inflation and successfully courted foreign investors to develop its domestic mineral processing industry, notably in nickel, a key component in electric vehicle batteries.
A distinct shift came in Jokowi’s second term when he consolidated power and his aides began talking about a possible constitutional change to allow him a third term, and when that went nowhere, a term extension, according to many media reports.
Neither idea bore fruit, and Jokowi eventually urged government ministers to stop talking about him staying in office.
Another worrying sign is how the Jokowi administration has used institutions such as courts, the anti-corruption body and the attorney general’s office for political gain, academics and critics said.
The president’s office did not respond to a request for comment.
The critics said that the president’s supporters have deployed threats of corruption charges to keep opponents in line, including rival party figures and government critics.
The sudden resignation of Golkar party chief Airlangga Hartarto in August and his replacement by a Jokowi loyalist was among the cases where legal threats were deployed for political gain, media reports said.
Airlangga declined to comment.
Jokowi’s office said his decision to resign had nothing to do with the president.
“What we’ve seen is the president growing confident, because he’s learned that he can actually get away with it,” said Sana Jaffrey, a research fellow at the Australian National University.
The integrity of the judiciary came into sharp focus in October last year when the constitutional court — at the time headed by Jokowi’s brother-in-law — issued a ruling that allowed the president’s eldest son, 37-year-old Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to successfully run for vice president by changing minimum age requirements.
Protests erupted in August, after parliament proposed more election changes that would have allowed Jokowi’s younger son Kaesang Pangarep to run in regional elections next month. Lawmakers then abandoned the plan.
“It’s as if he erased all the good things that he has done,” former staffer Yanuar said, who joined the protests.
Still, Jokowi remains immensely popular. His approval rating fell to its lowest level this year, a poll by Indikator Politik Indonesia showed last week, with the outgoing leader retaining 75 percent support, higher than the average over his two terms in office.
Reflecting on his decade, Jaffrey said Jokowi has taken Indonesia right to the edge, but not yet into “competitive authoritarianism.”
“In a system like that, all the structures of democracy exist... but none of them are meaningful,” she said.
That means Prabowo would inherit a country more powerful and less accountable than it has been since 1998, when its reform period began, Jaffrey said.
“A return to Suharto-era political structures is likely. Prabowo has made clear that he will brook very little dissent,” O’Rourke said.
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