While the rest of the world weighs the impact of a former US president Donald Trump or a US Vice President Kamala Harris victory in November’s US presidential election, both candidates present serious challenges for China. To be sure, neither seems to want open conflict between the two powers, which could precipitate a nightmarish descent into global chaos. However, Chinese decisionmakers expect bitter disputes over trade technology and Taiwan regardless of who wins.
China is preparing for more turbulence by taking a whole-country approach to its relations with the US. That means moving beyond the realm of foreign affairs and coordinating with economic policymakers, military personnel and technology leaders, as well as mobilizing resources across the country. Such an approach is informed by the US strategy of containment, which over the past few years has included relentless efforts to maintain the US’ technological supremacy, curb China’s access to the global market, and build a coalition of allies, both in Asia and elsewhere, to tackle the “China challenge.”
Feeling under siege, China is girding itself for long-term enmity with the world’s largest economy.
As part of this process, China has shifted its economic paradigm away from chasing growth at any cost to building a resilient economy that is driven by innovation and can cope with protracted geopolitical tensions. By accelerating domestic innovation, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) also aims to restructure the economy and help reduce its over-reliance on the property sector. The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) Third Plenum, which was completed in July, gave the final stamp of approval for this massive overhaul.
Scientific advancement and technological prowess are part of Xi’s key strategic goals. China has attached great importance to developing its capacity for innovation and is determined to become a global champion in certain tech sectors. However, targeted US sanctions against Chinese tech companies and individuals have thwarted these efforts and are thus working as intended.
Trade and investment have traditionally been seen as stabilizing forces in US-China relations. However, Chinese leaders now place less emphasis on them because their tangible benefits to bilateral ties have been significantly reduced, owing to increased commercial competitiveness and the country’s transition from a low-end, export-led growth model to a high-end, technology-driven economy. China’s rapid progress in manufacturing electric vehicles and semiconductors has instead stoked trade tensions with the US.
However, Taiwan is still by far the most sensitive issue in US-China relations. Despite no formal changes to the wording of China’s policy, Chinese strategists largely consider the situation to be precarious, given Taiwan’s new pro-independence government. This would likely result in China shifting to more active deterrence against Taiwan’s leadership and, by extension, the US. With the US similarly strengthening deterrent measures against China, the ingredients for a confrontation in the Taiwan Strait are in place. To prevent the worst-case scenario, Xi should conduct regular face-to-face conversations with whomever US voters elect in November.
China’s main goal is to ensure that any further erosion of US-China relations does not hinder economic growth, which underpins the regime’s legitimacy. Chinese policymakers have thus tried to minimize damage from the country’s fallout with the US by expanding its economic and political influence in the rest of the world, most notably in the global south. This could buy time for China to build economic resilience and accelerate the pace of technological development.
With Trump and Harris vying to sound the toughest on China in the run-up to the election, Chinese decisionmakers harbor no illusions that rocky relations with the US would magically improve soon. However, the US-China relationship should not be viewed with excessive pessimism. China’s policy toward the US has always been and would continue to be a product of balanced deliberation that accounts for the state of international affairs and weighs the country’s own needs. That has not changed, despite major shifts in the political landscape under Xi.
It is promising that both sides have recently shown more interest in responsibly managing ties. While the US-China rivalry would not disappear overnight, the world’s two largest economies could still avoid conflict — and the catastrophic consequences that would likely follow — no matter who enters the White House next year.
Yu Jie is a senior research fellow on China in the Asia-Pacific Program at Chatham House.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
A gap appears to be emerging between Washington’s foreign policy elites and the broader American public on how the United States should respond to China’s rise. From my vantage working at a think tank in Washington, DC, and through regular travel around the United States, I increasingly experience two distinct discussions. This divergence — between America’s elite hawkishness and public caution — may become one of the least appreciated and most consequential external factors influencing Taiwan’s security environment in the years ahead. Within the American policy community, the dominant view of China has grown unmistakably tough. Many members of Congress, as
After declaring Iran’s military “gone,” US President Donald Trump appealed to the UK, France, Japan and South Korea — as well as China, Iran’s strategic partner — to send minesweepers and naval forces to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. When allies balked, the request turned into a warning: NATO would face “a very bad” future if it refused. The prevailing wisdom is that Trump faces a credibility problem: having spent years insulting allies, he finds they would not rally when he needs them. That is true, but superficial, as though a structural collapse could be caused by wounded feelings. Something
Former Taipei mayor and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) founding chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) was sentenced to 17 years in prison on Thursday, making headlines across major media. However, another case linked to the TPP — the indictment of Chinese immigrant Xu Chunying (徐春鶯) for alleged violations of the Anti-Infiltration Act (反滲透法) on Tuesday — has also stirred up heated discussions. Born in Shanghai, Xu became a resident of Taiwan through marriage in 1993. Currently the director of the Taiwan New Immigrant Development Association, she was elected to serve as legislator-at-large for the TPP in 2023, but was later charged with involvement
Out of 64 participating universities in this year’s Stars Program — through which schools directly recommend their top students to universities for admission — only 19 filled their admissions quotas. There were 922 vacancies, down more than 200 from last year; top universities had 37 unfilled places, 40 fewer than last year. The original purpose of the Stars Program was to expand admissions to a wider range of students. However, certain departments at elite universities that failed to meet their admissions quotas are not improving. Vacancies at top universities are linked to students’ program preferences on their applications, but inappropriate admission
RSS