In recent months, high-level discussions in Taiwan have raised the prospect of the nation joining the International Criminal Court (ICC), one of the many institutional pillars of the international rules-based order that still excludes Taiwan.
Taiwan should swiftly move to join the court, as it would be an opportunity for the nation to send a clear signal to the world that it upholds the universal values of international law, justice and human rights.
Not being a member of the UN, Taiwan has faced difficulties in joining international institutions, but joining the ICC would be relatively straightforward: While most members have joined by depositing an instrument of accession to the Rome Statute with the UN, others have joined by unilaterally submitting to the court’s jurisdiction, which involves a simple declaration of accepting ICC jurisdiction over the territory it controls.
This method was used by Ukraine in 2013 and Palestine in 2015, and the court confirmed its jurisdiction over those areas in 2019 and 2020, including occupied and disputed territories.
The ICC has issued arrest warrants for war crimes in Ukraine, including for Russian President Vladimir Putin. ICC Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan has also applied for arrest warrants for war crimes committed in Palestine and Israel (a non-member), including for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
While the latter decisions have aroused considerable controversy in the US, this has not been true in much of the rest of the world, including close US allies. Taiwan can demonstrate its desire to be a normal member of the international community by joining the 124 other ICC members, including nearly every country in Latin America, and a majority of European and African states.
The move would strengthen Taiwan’s strong, values-based relationships with European allies, and make a clear first step toward mending Taiwan’s declining relations with Latin American and African states. It would signal to skeptical constituencies around the world that Taiwan is not a US puppet, but stands on its own two feet in international relations.
Some would argue that joining the ICC when the US is openly debating sanctioning the court risks alienating Taiwan’s most important ally. In reality, Taiwan would face no repercussions from the US. Hawks in Washington who are attacking the ICC are the same people who would never wish to appear weak on China by threatening Taiwan. Besides, this experiment has already run its course in Europe — the US has taken no actions against Western allies who have backed the court’s independence.
There is also the “deterrent factor.” Some have said ICC jurisdiction over Taiwan would be an effective deterrent against a Chinese invasion, even though an invasion of sovereign Taiwan would contravene international law, regardless of ICC jurisdiction.
Many security officials worry most about a blockade in which China cuts Taiwan off from the world. Some have estimated that in the event of a blockade, Taiwan would run critically low on food supplies within six months and would exhaust critical fuel stockpiles within weeks.
Taiwan’s supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is especially vulnerable, with reserves that might only last for up to 11 days, despite a plan for the grid to be 50 percent dependent on LNG by next year. Grid failures would inevitably lead to casualties as hospitals struggle to keep the lights on.
ICC jurisdiction might prove to have some deterrence against Chinese aggression in this case. In the Gaza war, the basis for arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant included “starvation of civilians as a method of warfare,” citing its restriction of food and medicine, as well as “cutting off and hindering electricity supplies” as specific acts constituting war crimes.
Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and Chinese officials would similarly risk international arrest warrants for a blockade of Taiwan. Xi might be willing to risk a great deal to coerce Taiwan, but he is counting on the appearance of restraint to maintain China’s global standing.
Xi would become an international pariah at a time when China is attempting to assert global leadership.
Even Russia’s close BRICS ally South Africa was unwilling to host Putin for a BRICS event after the court issued a warrant for his arrest. Xi would likely receive the same treatment from non-aligned countries, which strongly rely on a rules-based order governed by international institutions that treat all nations, big and small, on equal footing.
Although the immediate impact of joining the ICC would be limited, it is a strategic and simple step the nation can take toward long-term deterrence and coalition building, sending a strong signal of Taiwanese values to the international community.
Sasha B. Chhabra is an analyst, commentator and media consultant on China’s foreign policy, Taiwanese politics and cross-strait affairs.
Elbridge Colby, America’s Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is the most influential voice on defense strategy in the Second Trump Administration. For insight into his thinking, one could do no better than read his thoughts on the defense of Taiwan which he gathered in a book he wrote in 2021. The Strategy of Denial, is his contemplation of China’s rising hegemony in Asia and on how to deter China from invading Taiwan. Allowing China to absorb Taiwan, he wrote, would open the entire Indo-Pacific region to Chinese preeminence and result in a power transition that would place America’s prosperity
A few weeks ago in Kaohsiung, tech mogul turned political pundit Robert Tsao (曹興誠) joined Western Washington University professor Chen Shih-fen (陳時奮) for a public forum in support of Taiwan’s recall campaign. Kaohsiung, already the most Taiwanese independence-minded city in Taiwan, was not in need of a recall. So Chen took a different approach: He made the case that unification with China would be too expensive to work. The argument was unusual. Most of the time, we hear that Taiwan should remain free out of respect for democracy and self-determination, but cost? That is not part of the usual script, and
All 24 Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers and suspended Hsinchu Mayor Ann Kao (高虹安), formerly of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), survived recall elections against them on Saturday, in a massive loss to the unprecedented mass recall movement, as well as to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that backed it. The outcome has surprised many, as most analysts expected that at least a few legislators would be ousted. Over the past few months, dedicated and passionate civic groups gathered more than 1 million signatures to recall KMT lawmakers, an extraordinary achievement that many believed would be enough to remove at
Behind the gloating, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) must be letting out a big sigh of relief. Its powerful party machine saved the day, but it took that much effort just to survive a challenge mounted by a humble group of active citizens, and in areas where the KMT is historically strong. On the other hand, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) must now realize how toxic a brand it has become to many voters. The campaigners’ amateurism is what made them feel valid and authentic, but when the DPP belatedly inserted itself into the campaign, it did more harm than good. The
RSS