The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) started its “Joint Sword (聯合利劍)-2024A” military exercises around Taiwan on Thursday last week, the purpose of which was to respond to President William Lai’s (賴清德) inaugural address on Monday last week.
Since Lai’s election in January, China has initiated a series of actions. Some of the preparations for these exercises were made before the speech, ranging from small-scale training to joint military drills, which were to be conducted depending on the content of Lai’s speech. Unfortunately, the end of the speech was the beginning of the Chinese military threat.
These exercises were a continuation of last year’s “Joint Sword 2023,” and it is worth paying attention to whether “Joint Sword” operations would become a regular event targeting Taiwan. Whether the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) launches Dongfeng (東風) ballistic missiles across Taiwan’s airspace again — just like it did after then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022 — is another operation to look out for. If Beijing had raised the scale of these exercises to the level of test-firing a Dongfeng missile, it might lead to a loss of flexibility with its future actions toward Taiwan.
The scale of this year’s exercises was similar to last year’s, which was to use naval and air forces to try to create form of blockade against Taiwan. Its military operations were limited to around the Taiwan Strait, so as to avoid causing a reaction from other countries, and to tell the international community that this was an internal affair of China while rejecting foreign intervention.
For this exercise, the most important thing to observe is the PLA’s newly reorganized military command and control capabilities. After its Strategic Support Force was replaced last month by three new units, the outside world is very interested in knowing whether its new Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force and Information Support Force are experiencing any difficulties in mastering joint operations after the major reorganization. As changes in the PLA’s military power would inevitably affect Beijing’s trust in its strength.
Moreover, the three new units’ hierarchical command and control structure, as well as the mobilization of the units in this exercise should be observed. The fact that the China Coast Guard also conducted joint operations around Taiwan’s outlying islands shows that the Chinese armed forces have been integrated and are now able to conduct coordinated joint operations.
After the Joint Sword-2024A exercise, would a B, C or D exercise be launched this year, depending on the new triangular interactions between the US, China and Taiwan, or does the code refer to various types of scenarios in this exercise? Such issues also deserve our observation.
Finally, this exercise is also a reaction to the US’ recent China policy and US-led joint military exercises in the Western Pacific region. Would new Chinese Minister of National Defense Dong Jun (董軍) attend this year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, which is scheduled to run from Friday to Sunday? Would this exercise have an impact on upcoming events, such as the biennial Rim of the Pacific exercises in the summer and the US presidential election in November? These all need to be analyzed and countermeasures must be planned.
Strategy is about prevention, not a cure. Past failures can be summed up in two words: too late.
Lin Ying-yu is an assistant professor in Tamkang University’s Graduate Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies.
Translated by Eddy Chang
After Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) met Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) in Beijing, most headlines referred to her as the leader of the opposition in Taiwan. Is she really, though? Being the chairwoman of the KMT does not automatically translate into being the leader of the opposition in the sense that most foreign readers would understand it. “Leader of the opposition” is a very British term. It applies to the Westminster system of parliamentary democracy, and to some extent, to other democracies. If you look at the UK right now, Conservative Party head Kemi Badenoch is
From the Iran war and nuclear weapons to tariffs and artificial intelligence, the agenda for this week’s Beijing summit between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is packed. Xi would almost certainly bring up Taiwan, if only to demonstrate his inflexibility on the matter. However, no one needs to meet with Xi face-to-face to understand his stance. A visit to the National Museum of China in Beijing — in particular, the “Road to Rejuvenation” exhibition, which chronicles the rise and rule of the Chinese Communist Party — might be even more revealing. Xi took the members
A Pale View of Hills, a movie released last year, follows the story of a Japanese woman from Nagasaki who moved to Britain in the 1950s with her British husband and daughter from a previous marriage. The daughter was born at a time when memories of the US atomic bombing of Nagasaki during World War II and anxiety over the effects of nuclear radiation still haunted the community. It is a reflection on the legacy of the local and national trauma of the bombing that ended the period of Japanese militarism. A central theme of the movie is the need, at
The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) on Friday used their legislative majority to push their version of a special defense budget bill to fund the purchase of US military equipment, with the combined spending capped at NT$780 billion (US$24.78 billion). The bill, which fell short of the Executive Yuan’s NT$1.25 trillion request, was passed by a 59-0 margin with 48 abstentions in the 113-seat legislature. KMT Chairwoman Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文), who reportedly met with TPP Chairman Huang Kuo-chang (黃國昌) for a private meeting before holding a joint post-vote news conference, was said to have mobilized her
RSS