Though events in the Taiwan Strait seem to have quieted down a bit lately, the tension has not really dissipated. Emperor for Life Xi Jinping (習近平) regularly repeats his claim that retaking Taiwan is to be the crown jewel of his term in power, adding that this little bit of business cannot be put off indefinitely. Beijing has shown little interest in lowering tensions, though it has not been precise on the actual timing.
Under US President Joe Biden, the word from the White house has been that America would not sit idly by should China attack or threaten the island state sitting less than a hundred miles off the coast of the mainland. Biden does not enjoy a majority in the US Congress, which forces him to tread cautiously on controversial issues of state. That said, the Congress remains staunchly supportive of Taiwan, across both sides of the aisle on Capitol Hill.
This is far from accidental. Taipei has long courted members of Congress, welcoming regular visits to the island as a way to gain favor. During my multiple tours serving in the informal embassy that is the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) I have regularly greeted delegations from our legislative branch, even as the most senior members of government have been reluctant to follow suit. China seems always ready to overreact in this area. When then-speaker of the house Nancy Pelosi paid a visit to Taipei not long ago, Beijing’s response included missiles shot into waters around Taiwan. To his credit, President Biden sent US warships into the area in response as he warned China not to push the envelope further. In this he enjoyed broad bipartisan support in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
William Lai’s (賴清德) narrow election victory to replace President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) in May assured continuing steadfast support for a Taiwan living free and essentially independent from China. Former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) paid a visit to China and was royally received by top PRC officials, including an audience with Xi. Speaking candidly, however, Ma is yesterday’s news in Taiwan politics. Even his own party, the KMT, has proven reluctant to press for closer political contacts with China. That seems prudent, since for the most part, Taiwan’s 24 million citizens are not interested in closer political links to the PRC.
All eyes are now shifting to America’s November elections, pitting incumbent Joe Biden against Donald Trump. Trump faces serious criminal charges, and undoubtedly pins his hopes on a victory in this November’s presidential elections, anticipating that then he can brush aside many of his legal problems. As I write this in May, it seems hard to predict which one of these two leading candidates will prevail. Some pundits claim Biden is too old (he would be the oldest President in American history). But Trump is just a few years younger, and a lifestyle of cheeseburgers and soda is not conducive to health or longevity.
Our elections remain six months away, so a lot could happen during that period. Mr Trump’s multiple trials have already cut into his time campaigning. Thus far his supporters seem complacent, but that could change if the courts rule against him, or he demonstrates further health problems. It seems American voters haven’t yet really tuned into this election. But when they do, they will have to weigh the age and health of both candidates, as well as their respective running mates, given the real possibility that one or both of them could encounter significant health issues during their next four-year term in office. Trump has yet to identify his prospective running mate. Biden appears comfortable sticking with Kamala Harris as his partner.
Some pundits have not been kind to Harris, though that seems to come with the job. I think her precedent-setting role as a woman and a person of color in the Vice President’s chair will end up being a net plus, once voters take a closer look at her career in Congress and California government. President Biden has proven a strong supporter of Taiwan, and I have no reason to believe his Vice President would change this in any significant manner.
A lot can happen in the coming months. A crisis involving either the ongoing war in Ukraine or a new dust-up involving Taiwan is another area to watch. Thus far Mr Xi seems to be exercising some caution. Perhaps he is hoping a Trump victory would favor the Chinese strongman’s hand in Washington. Xi’s ham-fisted crushing of Hong Kong — despite Deng Xiaoping’s (鄧小平) earlier promise to Great Britain and the world that Beijing would grant the former British colony a great deal of autonomy for 50 years, that is until at least 2047 — makes it difficult for any objective observer to have confidence in Beijing’s future behavior, so long as Xi remains at the helm.
So where does this leave us? In American politics, a second term for Joe Biden would ensure a great deal of continuity. A Trump victory would likely lead to much disruption in all aspects, including our commitment to Taipei and more broadly, continued respect for the sovereignty of our many friends in the Asia-Pacific.
I tend to be an optimist, trusting to the wisdom of American voters to choose the most suitable candidate to lead our country into the future. No matter who wins, Taiwan will have a host of friends and allies on Capitol Hill and throughout the country. This is no accident. Taipei has survived and thrived in large part because it has diligently cultivated friends everywhere in our great country. This is unlikely to change.
To sum things up, tensions in the Taiwan Strait — while elevated — are still within the longstanding parameters of this hot spot in east Asia. President Biden has been a vocal supporter of Taiwan’s right to chart its own political path, despite PRC threats and provocations. The American Congress, in both houses and both parties, remains a solid supporter of the island nation. That is unlikely to change. So all eyes should be shifting to the critical American presidential election this November, in the hopes that the next administration will reaffirm the moral and material support of Taiwan that has long been the bedrock of Washington policy. That would send the right signal to Mr Xi in his closeted office in Beijing to be very cautious in provoking Washington.
Ambassador Stephen M. Young (ret.) lived in Kaohsiung as a boy over 50 years ago, and served in AIT four times: as a young consular officer (1981-’82), as a language student (1989-’90), as Deputy Director (1998-2001) and as Director (2006-’9). He visits often and writes regularly about Taiwan matters. Young was also US Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan and Consul General to Hong Kong during his 33-year career as a foreign service officer. He has a BA from Wesleyan University and a PhD from the University of Chicago.
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