Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s first remarks to the joint session of the US Congress were perhaps also his most heartfelt.
“I never get such nice applause from the Japanese Diet,” the premier laughed last week, as the ovation he received at his historic address, only the second by a Tokyo leader, rang in his ears. Kishida made friends in Washington, and would have left a good impression with his surprisingly personable speeches, filled with jokes about his childhood in the US watching The Flintstones.
The premier must wish he could have stayed there, on a geopolitical circuit that praises him for moving his country closer to the US.
Illustration: Yusha
The Japanese businesspeople, pop stars and executives who serenaded him in DC do not seem so keen to be seen with him back in Tokyo.
At home, Kishida has already been plunged back into the depressingly familiar: polling numbers near record lows, never-ending political scandals and a public that is weary of him.
His inbox is packed. He must tackle a party nearing active rebellion against him, win a crucial upcoming by-election and perhaps make a decision on whether to call a general election in a last-ditch attempt to extend his premiership.
Absent such a bold move, the leader’s time is running short.
In September, his term as head of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) (and therefore prime minister) is to expire. He can run again, but his low polling numbers mean he is likely to face significant competition.
Thus far, Kishida has been saved by the fact that there have been no significant national elections. However, with both upper and lower house votes that must be held by next year, lawmakers nervously eying their own seats would be keen to go to the polls with a popular leader — and unlikely to endorse this premier for another three-year stint.
A decisive date looms in an unlikely location: the Shimane No. 1 district, a region of about 250,000 people in one of Japan’s most sparsely populated prefectures. It is one of three by-elections being held on Sunday, the first major electoral test since news first broke of the funding scandal that has thrown the LDP into such disarray that it would not even field candidates in two of the three races.
The Shimane poll is to be a referendum on Kishida’s LDP. Defeat in a region ranked among the party’s safest seats would convince many that it is time to cut their losses, possibly leading to a movement to oust him even before September.
However, a convincing win might give the prime minister a chance to play his final card: calling a snap election at the end of the current Diet session in June.
Despite local stocks enjoying recent record highs and the Bank of Japan so far successfully navigating the unwinding of unpopular negative rates, Kishida has struggled to turn domestic successes into support. That is one reason he has been looking for foreign-policy wins, such as his Washington trip or the Hail Mary pass of a briefly mooted summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
His US visit has pushed up his polling numbers, albeit from a record-low base.
The prime minister raised eyebrows earlier this month when he said that “ultimately the people and the party members will judge” his responsibility for the funding scandal — remarks some took to mean a snap election was still a live possibility.
However, polls have largely been scathing: About 78 percent of those asked by the Japanese news wire Kyodo are not happy that Kishida himself has not been punished for the scandal, and 93 percent say it has not been sufficiently investigated. Nonetheless, if he survives Shimane, and judges the sentiment would not translate into a rout at a general election, he might try to pull the trigger.
For that, he also needs sufficient party support. It seems just as likely that he would demur — or jump before he gets pushed. That would turn the conversation instead to who would succeed him, speculation that has been made all the more difficult by the collapse of the LDP factions, all but one of which has been dissolved in response to the funding scandal.
Several of those long expected to contest a post-Kishida administration are now ineligible or sidelined, perhaps permanently.
Many past contenders seem likely to run again in the hope that this vote would be different, including the popular-with-the-public (but not within the party) former defense minister Shigeru Ishiba, Minister for Digital Transformation Taro Kono and the conservative Minister of State for Economic Security Sanae Takaichi.
However, one new name doing the rounds in Tokyo is that of Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa, hailed earlier this year by former prime minister and party bigwig Taro Aso as the LDP’s “new star.” Widely seen as a scandal-free safe pair of hands, she has been rising in public opinion polls — and would also have the electoral advantage of campaigning as the first female prime minister.
Throughout his term in office (already among the 10th-longest administrations in postwar Japanese history, in a country where most leaders barely last two years), Kishida has displayed a talent for muddling through, despite all the while being engulfed in scandals.
However, time is running out and he has, at most, one more window to play his ultimate card.
Gearoid Reidy is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Japan and the Koreas. He previously led the breaking news team in North Asia, and was the Tokyo deputy bureau chief. This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners.
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