Tensions between China and the Philippines over disputed territories in the South China Sea are escalating, especially as the Philippines strengthens its defense alliances with the US and other nations. Furthermore, the Philippines is extending its defense concerns by supporting the US in safeguarding Taiwan’s security.
Last year witnessed a steady escalation of the conflict between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea. The Philippines documented incidents of the China Coast Guard (CCG) and other vessels “swarming” the Whitsun Reef (牛軛礁) and employing water cannons to target Philippine vessels. Beijing alleged that the Philippines had provoked them by stationing a small number of troops on the rusted hull of a ship that had been scrapped in 1999, at the Second Thomas Shoal (Renai Shoal, 仁愛暗沙).
The CCG engaged in risky maneuvers and discharged military-grade lasers, aiming to cause a collision.
China claims nearly the entire South China Sea through a vague demarcation referred to as the “nine-dash line.” This overlaps with the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, where it holds resource rights. It also encroaches upon Vietnam’s sovereign sea space, and claims territory belonging to Brunei and Malaysia. In 2015, the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled in favor of these Southeast Asian nations, dismissing China’s territorial claims.
However, Beijing rejected the ruling. Now, these nations have brought their grievances to ASEAN. Ironically, Laos, despite being landlocked, finds itself caught up in the dispute as the current chair of ASEAN. This places the country in an uncomfortable and compromising position, given its significant economic and diplomatic dependency on Beijing.
The ramifications of Beijing’s disputed claims in the South China Sea extend far beyond China and the other claimants. Approximately US$5 trillion in international trade flows through the South China Sea annually. Consequently, any restriction on freedom of navigation in the area affects the entire world.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr has expressed his willingness to engage in negotiations with China, but when it comes to his nation’s sovereignty, he asserts that if pushed, he would push back.
Confronted with a mounting threat, the Philippines is bolstering its security partnerships with other nations, notably the US.
Washington is the Philippines’ oldest security ally. Former Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte, Marcos’ predecessor, initiated proceedings on at least three occasions to terminate the Visiting Forces Agreement, which allowed the US to station troops in the Philippines and serve as a security guarantor for its former territory.
However, upon assuming office, Marcos welcomed the return of US troops. He also expanded the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, granting US forces access to more military bases. Additionally, the US is supporting the Philippine military by providing it US$120 million annually.
Beijing frequently conducts military drills in the region to intimidate Taiwan and the Philippines. This year, Marcos demonstrated his readiness to push back when the US and the Philippines responded by conducting their own naval drills.
Marcos has expanded beyond the US and forged security agreements with at least 18 countries over the past year. In January, he signed a maritime security agreement with Vietnam, referring to it as the Philippines’ “sole strategic partner” in the region. Sweden’s involvement in the Horizon 3 phase of the Revised Armed Forces of the Philippines Modernization Program includes providing advanced aircraft to the Philippine Air Force. France has entered a security pact allowing for joint military combat exercises, while the EU and India have committed to enhanced maritime security cooperation. India is also facilitating military modernization loans and supplying the BrahMos anti-ship missile system, which can be deployed from land, air and sea platforms.
Additionally, the Philippines has solidified defense cooperation through agreements with Canada and the UK, signing a memorandum of understanding and a maritime defense agreement, respectively. Several European nations, including the Czech Republic, Germany, Italy and Sweden, have offered drone and submarine support.
Moreover, in collaboration with Australia, the Philippines is establishing a fleet of 30 boats designed for counterterrorism patrols in the rivers and marshes of Mindanao, an area plagued by Muslim extremist terrorism.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced that the Philippines would be the primary recipient of Japan’s new security assistance program. Japan would supply the Philippines with coastal surveillance radar, Japanese patrol boats and additional defense equipment. The two nations have also inked an agreement permitting each other’s troops to access their sovereign territory for joint training purposes.
Renato Cruz De Castro, a professor of international studies at De La Salle University in Manila, said that China making its own bed is driving other nations into an alliance against Beijing.
“China is basically pushing us closer to the United States and to the other countries that have already indicated their support, as far as Germany and as far as the Czech Republic,” he said.
For Taiwan, the expanded US military presence in the Philippines holds significant strategic importance. Washington and Manila recognize that troops and military assets stationed in the “first island chain” could serve to counter Chinese aggression against Taiwan while also defending the Philippines.
There are plans for the US to finance the construction of a naval base at a Philippine port in Batanes, on the Luzon Strait. This location would be crucial for Taiwan’s defense. During peacetime, the port would enhance Manila’s ability to monitor its maritime border. In the event of war, it would serve as a transit point for supplies or the evacuation of Filipinos working in Taiwan.
Additionally, it would serve as a key launching point for the US military. A Chinese strike on Batanes would constitute a direct attack on the Philippines, likely drawing Manila and its numerous security partners into the conflict.
The Philippines, like most developing nations, requires investment and trade with China. Marcos is reluctant to compromise his nation’s sovereignty, but he also aims to avoid provoking a war. Beijing is likely to perceive the new base in Batanes as an aggressive move by the US and the Philippines. That Marcos is contemplating allowing the base to be built underscores the close relationship between Washington and Manila, as well as the Philippine president’s determination to resist any encroachment by Beijing on his country’s sovereign territory.
Antonio Graceffo, a China economic analyst who holds a China MBA from Shanghai Jiaotong University, studies national defense at the American Military University in West Virginia.
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