After the presidential election, how should Taiwanese interpret the results? What kind of message do they have for the parties?
First, the Democratic Progressive Party has lost half of the young people’s votes that used to be in its pockets. If it does not make up for this loss, then elections would become more difficult to win.
The government’s COVID-19 pandemic response has garnered international recognition, the GDP has surpassed that of South Korea and is catching up with Japan, the TAIEX has repeatedly hit record highs and has remained above 10,000 points, and the unemployment rate is low. So why are young people indifferent to such achievements, and why can these accomplishments not effectively transform into votes?
If in the next four years president-elect William Lai (賴清德) fails to change his serious persona and show his easygoing, friendly and humorous side, he would push away young voters, who want a leader who appears natural and spontaneous.
For the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), over time voters on the left and right of the political spectrum have been moving toward the center. That means that the number of “blue fighters” led by KMT vice presidential candidate Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康), as well as the number of diehard supporters in traditional military dependents’ villages, is likely to decline, and their political influence would in turn diminish.
If the KMT’s “blue intellectuals,” led by former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), cannot draw a line between themselves and the Chinese Communist Party, and if they still cannot fix their hate speech issues, they would absolutely be a bomb for the party in presidential polls. They would only be able to reassure those already in their comfort zones. As a result, the KMT would be unable to develop new sources of voters and could only rely of their support base. Thus, it might slip further away from regaining the presidential office.
As for the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), just look toward the New Party and the People First Party that departed from the KMT. They both went into a bubble quickly after a short period of prosperity. Also, look at how Ma once saved the KMT, but ended up becoming a hindrance for it in the elections. These all serve as lessons for the TPP.
TPP Chairman Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) started his political career with the slogan of “knocking down the high wall.” Ironically, after he was elected Taipei mayor, he actually built a high wall, instead of knocking one down, when handling the so-called “five major corruptions.” His running mate in the presidential election, TPP Legislator Cynthia Wu (吳欣盈), is a third-generation member of a large Taiwanese conglomerate.
After eight years as Taipei mayor, he won the fewest votes among the three presidential candidates on Jan. 13. Obviously, as long as the voters follow his own saying that “you can only fool me once,” Ko, who is only capable of boasting unabashedly and telling lies, would soon be seen through by middle-aged and elderly voters who have more experience with politicians. By that time, he would have lost his presidential stage.
Ko can only deceive young people who are less experienced and know little about the dangers of the human heart. If the TPP cannot get out of his control as soon as possible, then the party’s future would solely lie in Ko himself.
Chang Kuo-tsai is a retired National Hsinchu University of Education associate professor.
Translated by Eddy Chang
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS