The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) on Tuesday reported the highest number of hospital visits for influenza-like illnesses — 123,614 — in a decade, and has predicted the peak would be the week before the Lunar New Year holiday.
Hospital visits for flu-like illnesses have trended upward in the past few weeks, from 109,394 a week earlier and 85,912 two weeks earlier, with the CDC predicting they might peak at 150,000.
The most common cause of respiratory infections in the past four weeks was adenoviruses, followed by flu and parainfluenza viruses.
CDC Deputy Director-General Philip Lo (羅一鈞) on Tuesday said that the high rate of illness was likely because of a lack of immune stimulation due to COVID-19 measures in the past three years.
The centers also reported an uptrend in weekly COVID-19 hospitalizations, from 326 to 360 and 515 in the past three weeks. COVID-19 cases are increasing in many countries, it said.
Lo said that COVID-19 cases in Taiwan are likely to peak around the Lunar New Year holiday, reaching about 12,000 to 15,000 cases per day, with the JN.1 subvariant expected to replace EG.5 as the dominant strain locally.
While experts say there is no evidence that the new JN.1 subvariant causes more severe disease than other strains of SARS-CoV-2, hospitalizations and deaths increase when case counts rise significantly, putting a strain on the healthcare system.
The CDC last week reported a five-month high in weekly COVID-19 hospitalizations and a four-month high in COVID-19-related deaths, while US data on Friday showed that hospital admissions for the disease have increased for nine consecutive weeks.
In Taiwan, 78 percent of those hospitalized with COVID-19 are 65 or older, but, more tellingly, 97 to 99 percent of new hospitalizations in the past three weeks were people who who had not gotten the updated, XBB.1.5-adapted COVID-19 vaccine.
Moreover, of the people with severe flu complications, including those who died, in the past several weeks, the vast majority were not vaccinated this flu season, CDC data showed.
In Taiwan, nearly all COVID-19 restrictions were dropped last year, but the mask mandate remains at healthcare facilities to protect vulnerable people, including elderly people, and those who are immunocompromised, as they are at higher risk of developing severe complications from infection.
However, wearing a mask might not be enough, especially for those in high-risk groups. Public health officials and health experts say that vaccinations are critical for preventing severe illness and death, even if they do not completely prevent infections.
Government-funded flu vaccines have been available for high-risk groups since October last year, but the uptake among elderly people has not reached the CDC’s goal of 65 percent. People over six months old are eligible for the XBB vaccine, but as of Thursday, only about 1.02 million people had recieved it.
Some people might be tired of getting shots and others might be unaware that there is an updated COVID-19 vaccine or might question whether the XBB vaccine is effective against emerging subvariants, but the WHO last month said that XBB vaccines are likely to be effective against JN.1.
The CDC on Tuesday cited studies from Denmark, the Netherlands and the US showing that the effectiveness of XBB vaccines against hospitalization and admission to intensive care is 60 to 70 percent.
With travel to increase as the Lunar New Year holiday approaches, the CDC and health experts say it is not too late to get an up-to-date vaccination.
The CDC also recommended masks in crowded areas or while indoors, and testing and avoiding gatherings to minimize the risk of spreading viruses and disrupting holiday plans.
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