In Japanese academic Yoshiyuki Ogasawara’s book On the Taiwanese Presidential Election (台灣總統大選－台灣認同的成長與爭奪), he made a careful analysis of the past seven presidential elections by categorizing Taiwanese voters into three groups: The first endorses Chinese nationalism; the second, Taiwanese nationalism; and the last, a Taiwanese identity. The difference between the latter two is that voters in the last might value Taiwan’s sovereignty, but consider themselves both Taiwanese and Chinese, and usually support maintaining the “status quo” while developing an inclination for Taiwan’s democratic system.
Ogasawara’s theory states that no matter if it is the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) or the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), when either party takes a Chinese nationalism or Taiwanese nationalism stance, that party loses the presidential election. The results of every presidential election since 1996 have long rested on the third group’s endorsement.
During the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis in 1996, former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) marginalized his rivals — Peng Ming-min (彭明敏) of the DPP and independent Lin Yang-kang (林洋港) — who respectively represented Taiwanese nationalism and Chinese nationalism, and maximized support from the group favoring a Taiwanese identity. In 2000, former president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) triumphed and secured a second term with his “New Middle Way” (新中間路線), a policy that promised to transcend Taiwanese independence and Chinese unification. The DPP’s replacement of the “Taiwan Independence Clause” (台獨黨綱) with the “Resolution on Taiwan’s Future” in 1999 also helped. In 2012, former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) won with the so-called “1992 consensus,” the difference being that the consensus was based on the principle of “one China, different interpretations.”
President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) two consecutive victories were also closely associated with the group. The Sunflower movement in 2014 unleashed a political tidal wave that reshaped the political landscape. Tsai’s vow to push back against a KMT pivot toward China and the cross-strait service trade agreement saw her elected. In 2020, following China’s crackdown on Hong Kong’s pro-democracy demonstrations, as well as former Kaohsiung mayor Han Kuo-yu’s (韓國瑜) “China-friendly” cross-strait stance and mocking of the DPP’s “sense of the nation’s impending doom” turned the tide in Tsai’s favor when she vowed again to maintain the “status quo.”
Yet in terms of next month’s elections, the cross-strait policy of past elections has been sidelined, with only the KMT appealing to voters that the election is a choice between “war or peace.”
Since all three candidates are benshengren (本省人) — people who came to Taiwan before World War II and their offspring — who vow to maintain the “status quo,” the DPP has no edge or “material” to work with as before, complicating predictions on who would win the last group’s support this time, Ogasawara said.
Instead of cross-strait trade, public discourse has centered on private property — DPP presidential candidate Vice President William Lai’s (賴清德) old family home, TPP Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je’s (柯文哲) Hsinchu County farmland and KMT presidential candidate and New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi’s (侯友宜) Kaisuan Condominium.
Vetted as a rising star of the DPP, Lai was renowned for his rectitude, uprightness and integrity ever since entering politics 30 years ago. As his rivals fail to dig up dirt on him, the only “fault” they could find seems to be the old family home they claim is an “illegal structure.” However, compared to Lai’s old family house, valued at less than NT$1 million (US$32,554), Hou’s Kaisuan Condominium and Ko’s “farmland” have been more damaging.
It is strange that a presidential election to determine cross-strait relations would center on private property. This is due to voter fatigue on cross-strait issues, and because of Lai’s clean past and upright character.
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