Taiwan is in a state of lethargy. It needs to be woken up. Taiwanese women might do it.
Since Sept. 16, 2020, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has not recognized the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Since that day, it has continuously carried out incursions into Taiwan’s airspace and territorial waters. Some international media mistakenly associate those incursions with the visit of then-US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi. Apparently, they would have been a response to the provocative attitude of the US.
It is nothing of the sort. That visit took place after the PRC made a policy change amid the COVID-19 pandemic. In September 2020, the number of people infected and dead had already caused unprecedented devastation. Moreover, the world was suffering a deep economic contraction due to the sanitary measures put in place to contain the pandemic. For the PRC, it was truly the best time to start its forays into Taiwan’s space.
These incursions fulfill two important functions: One, more explicitly, signifying the military preparations for a possible invasion; another, a subtle one, is to carry out a large-scale psychological operation of transmitting the message that such an invasion would be inevitable and irresistible. In my opinion, this last function is the crucial one.
Academics are familiar with a particular phenomenon: self-fulfilling prophecies. If a bank’s clients are persuaded that it is going to fail, it does not matter that the bank is solvent; its clients will go to the bank, withdraw their money, and consequently the bank will fail. The same is true of a possible PRC invasion of Taiwan: If Taiwanese are convinced that it would be irresistible, and consequently no one resists, then a PRC invasion would be irresistible. To me, as an outside observer, this is pretty obvious. I think it is for many people here in Taiwan as well. What is happening then?
In the field of medical practice, there is a phenomenon known as alert fatigue: the continuous exposure to alarms regarding the state of patients can exhaust health personnel. This exhaustion decreases their responsiveness and endangers the lives of patients. To avoid this exhaustion, administrators of health units try to graduate the alarms and reduce health personnel’s continuous exposure to them this way.
The government might be doing a similar exercise of alarm exposure management. It might also happen that it is afflicted with another type of fatigue: the fatigue of democracy.
As in other countries around the world, Taiwanese do not put much faith in their political leaders. Indeed, only one in four citizens trusts political parties; only a third do so in parliament. Trust in the government is higher, but lower than trust in the military and the police. Politicians are aware of all this. The issue is that they respond to other alarms, above all, to not being elected.
This is the reason I believe that Taiwan’s women are called upon to awaken Taiwan from its lethargy. They are the ones who most intimately know and feel Taiwan’s achievements. They are the ones who can best defend it.
Taiwan’s achievements are manifold. The most prominent are those accomplished in the field of science, technology and industry. No need to mention them. Other achievements are those that concern its democratic development. Today in Taiwan no one cares about curfews, censorship or the government’s persecution of dissidents. There are also achievements that are less visible, but no less important. For example, even late at night, women can walk down the street on their own without worrying too much for their safety.
The empowerment of Taiwanese women has no parallel in the region. Even women from other regions of the world would envy the position that women have here in Taiwan. It would suffice to contrast a photo of senior Chinese officials, all men, with one of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
Beyond the identification with a government or a party, women of Taiwan are identified with their country, and their country can identify with them. It is time for Taiwanese women to express publicly their rejection of the PRC’s threats to use force. These threats are an open violation of the UN Charter. If the UN Security Council fulfilled its role, this issue should have been handled within it. A resolution on the matter is much more difficult to pass due to the veto power of its permanent members.
However, the continuous visits of delegations from numerous countries to Taiwan are proof of the concern in the world regarding what is happening in the Strait.
Yet, Taiwan’s future is in the hands of its own people. Against all odds of success, the students took to the streets in March 1990 and led the people to put the country on a democratic path. If the women took to the streets, they could lead people to tell the PRC that they will never accept the use of force as a solution to the conflict. Taiwanese women can also send a message of conciliation and understanding to a country to which Taiwan is linked by multiple economic and, above all, historical and cultural ties.
However, this message of conciliation would be better listened to if it were backed by the indeclinable will to maintain their country’s own self-determination.
One of the great worries of the Chinese leaders is to weaken the political center of their nation. This is a legitimate concern. The women of Taiwan could show them that free expression does not make a country weak.
However, for this belief to be accepted, it has to be supported by facts: by the clearest resolve of Taiwanese. The women of Taiwan can lead the public in expressing that resolve.
There is another group that could play a very important role in this entire process: that of the monks and clerics of all the religions in Taiwan. In this country, religious tolerance has reached its highest expression: People of different religions can attend the same place of worship. Moreover, Taiwan has shown the world that religious sentiment inspires acts of generosity and kindness toward suffering people. This religious feeling is one of Taiwan’s treasures. For this reason, I do not doubt that monks and clerics could attend the awakening of Taiwan, since its purpose is noble: to maintain peace and preserve the religious freedom in this country.
A PRC invasion is neither inevitable nor irresistible. Only the lethargy of Taiwanese society could allow that to happen. So, may Taiwan’s women wake up Taiwan.
Juan Gabriel Gomez Albarello is a lawyer, doctorate holder in political science, associate professor at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia and a recipient of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Taiwan Fellowship.
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