On April 26, British Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs James Cleverly gave a speech on diplomatic strategy at Mansion House in London.
He said that if a war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, it would not only become a human tragedy, but destroy global trade and the economy, which is worth US$2.6 trillion.
He said that every year, half of the world’s container ships pass through the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing that Taiwan is a crucial point in the global supply chain, particularly its role in providing advanced semiconductors.
If China invades Taiwan, it would be disastrous for the entire world. Every nation should take heed of Cleverly’s warning.
The war between Russia and Ukraine has already caused a series of negative effects, and it is not yet over. Similarly, a war across the Taiwan Strait would be sure to shatter security in the Asia-Pacific and devastate global trade. Every nation would be dragged in, and later on, suffer its long-term effects.
China would face even more severe consequences if it launched a military attack.
Beijing often says that the nature of its military strategy is only “defensive,” and that it would never try to command others or expand its power through military operations. If China attacked Taiwan in the near future, Beijing’s hypocrisy would be exposed, and China would have to face the consequences of its illegal actions. All the democratic countries around the world would certainly impose sanctions on Beijing.
On April 21, in an interview with German magazine Der Spiegel, European People’s Party Chairman Manfred Weber said that the EU must sanction China if it invades Taiwan.
He also said that although large-scale sanctions against Beijing would greatly affect Europe, the EU must be prepared for this.
Weber said that Beijing must understand the situation, and try not to provoke any kind of cross-strait conflict.
On May 4, while giving testimony before the US Senate Committee on Armed Services, US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines made a similar point.
Haines said that if a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) invasion stopped Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co from producing chips, it would devastate the economies of the US and China, but Beijing would experience a greater loss than Washington.
In short, conflict in the Taiwan Strait would lead to heavy casualties. The war would not end easily and would cost China greatly.
In January, Washington-based think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies recruited military experts to conduct war games emulating a possible conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The war games tested 24 different scenarios focusing on China’s attempts to seize Taiwan.
Most of the scenarios showed that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) forces would eventually be defeated.
On May 23, US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral John Aquilino spoke at an event in New York held by the National Committee on US-China Relations, a non-governmental organization.
In his speech, he made it clear that US President Joe Biden and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin had asked him to undertake two missions.
First, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan must be prevented, and second, if the CCP cannot be stopped, he must be prepared to fight and win the war.
Aquilino urged Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) to think about the consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war.
He said that a war across the Taiwan Strait would not end easily, and reminded Xi of the price that the Chinese public would have to pay if China invaded Taiwan. They would suffer massively, in blood and property.
In August last year, after the Chinese government carried out a series of live-fire drills in six areas around Taiwan, the international community expressed strong support for Taiwan.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said support came from 40 countries’ government agencies, 50 countries and more than 300 members of the European Parliament.
They not only backed Taiwan, but denounced the CCP’s military coercion. These expressions and actions all confirm that cross-strait safety is closely related to the stability of the world.
Only those ready for war can avoid war. The CCP’s military activities are getting more intense every day, and the PLA’s armed forces are getting closer to Taiwan’s territory. In the face of this, Taiwanese should not be afraid of conflict and must show their determination to fight the enemy.
Today, Taiwan’s national defense is an all-out one. If the CCP were to launch a reckless attack on Taiwan, it would have a huge effect on global trade.
Nevertheless, China would suffer the most, especially with regard to its military, foreign affairs and economy.
Yao Chung-yuan is an adjunct professor and former deputy director of the Ministry of National Defense’s strategic planning department.
Translated by Emma Liu
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