A report published in the Journal of Contemporary China on May 14 indicated that about half of Chinese would be in favor of using military force to achieve unification with Taiwan.
Rand Corporation Hu Taiwan Policy Initiative director Raymond Kuo (郭泓均) said the actual number supporting the use of force might be as low as 25 percent due to factors including self-censorship and the possibility of US involvement in a hypothetical conflict. Chinese are savvy enough to realize that their way of life could be destroyed if a war broke out.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Russians have found themselves unable to travel to some places, have had to pay more for things, and in some cases have been unable to buy things due to international sanctions and companies exiting the Russian market.
It is also highly unlikely that China could successfully mount an invasion of Taiwan, due to geographical factors, Taiwanese defenses and the likelihood of other countries providing Taiwan with military assistance. Also, if China were to attempt to blockade Taiwan, it would likely face swift and crippling economic sanctions from the US and Europe, and would even be cutting itself off from the computer chips, machinery and other economically important items it buys from Taiwan — and that is assuming the US would not break the blockade, which US Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo said in October last year that it could easily do.
All of this means that Chinese military aggression against Taiwan is exceedingly likely to result in failure and be highly detrimental to China. The Chinese public, for all its nationalistic posturing, is aware of this.
This is corroborated in a report by Nikkei senior staff writer Katsuji Nakazawa published on May 11. Nakazawa wrote that China’s military planners are aware that its forces would be spread thin fighting on four fronts against US allies in the event of a war.
Moreover, the Chinese public has been allowed to discuss the issue online.
“Some ordinary Chinese have come to sincerely believe that war will break out over Taiwan in the near future, pitting Chinese forces against formidable US troops,” he wrote. “Parents in China do not want to send their children to battle. This feeling has spread on Chinese social media, striking a chord among quite a few netizens.”
Although China is an oppressive, authoritarian state where the public has no avenue for meaningful participation in politics, Beijing has shown that it takes public opinion into account when it has its back against the wall. This was demonstrated during the COVID-19 pandemic when successive lockdowns left people in major cities unable to purchase food and basic necessities. Public protests ensued, and although many people were arrested, Beijing ended lockdowns and eased other restrictions.
With its “wolf warrior” diplomacy, Beijing is walking a thin line between maintaining legitimacy and causing actions that negatively affect China’s economy.
“If the impression were to take hold that a war over Taiwan is imminent, it would also put the brakes on foreign companies expanding into China, not to mention trigger an outflow of Chinese assets abroad,” Nakazawa wrote.
China cannot possibly win a war against Taiwan, but it has increased its threatening rhetoric, and the frequency of its drills and incursions in the Taiwan Strait. That is because Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) needs to justify his tightening grip on power.
Taiwan and nations friendly to it must continue to express to China that the consequences of acts of aggression against Taiwan would be more than Beijing could afford. Those messages seem to be getting through to the Chinese public.
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