All eyes are rightly fixated on Russia’s war in Ukraine, but that is no excuse for ignoring another crisis that is brewing on Europe’s doorstep. Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan are rising again, raising the prospect of another war.
I visited the Lachin corridor the previous week. It is the only road linking the ethnic Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and the outside world. Since December, access to the corridor has been blocked by Azerbaijanis under the pretext of an environmental protest. This is clearly happening with the backing of the regime in Baku.
With the “protesters” blocking all civilian or commercial traffic into Nagorno-Karabakh, Amnesty International said that about 120,000 ethnic Armenian residents are being deprived of essential goods and services, including life-saving medicines and healthcare.
Illustration: Mountain People
Under the ceasefire agreement that ended the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Baku pledged to ensure free movement along the road in both directions. Recognizing that Azerbaijan is violating its commitment by refusing to lift the blockade, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Feb. 22 issued an order demanding that Azerbaijan take all steps necessary to do so. However, a month has passed, and nothing has changed.
RUSSIAN APATHY
Although Russian peacekeeping forces stationed along the corridor are supposed to protect the route, they have failed to act. Unless Europe and the wider international community pressure Azerbaijan to lift the blockade, the current humanitarian crisis could become a humanitarian catastrophe.
Azerbaijan is using the blockade and other measures to strangle Nagorno-Karabakh. Residents are often prevented from returning to their homes, and gas and electricity are regularly cut off without warning or explanation. The intent, clearly, is to make life as difficult as possible for the Armenian population, and there is a serious risk of imminent ethnic cleansing. We must not divert our gaze from what is happening.
For its part, the Azerbaijani regime (and its online trolls) has continued to downplay the effects of the blockade — or even its existence. It also refuses to grant international observers access to assess the situation. The first priority for the international community, then, is to send a fact-finding mission to the corridor under the auspices of the UN or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.
We must make clear that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will face consequences if he continues to flout the ICJ’s binding order.
The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War made clear that Azerbaijan has a significant military advantage over Armenia, owing to the weapons that it has bought from Russia, Turkey and Israel. This fact was reiterated last September, when Azerbaijan took territory within Armenia itself — including strategic positions above the city of Jermuk — after just two days of renewed fighting.
Although Armenia is still a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization — the regional alliance linking Russia with five nearby former Soviet states — no support was forthcoming when it requested assistance following this attack on its sovereign territory. It was left vulnerable and alone.
Making matters worse, Azerbaijan has kept its troops on Armenian territory and refused to return Armenian prisoners of war.
With peace talks having stalled, there are clear warning signs that Azerbaijan believes it can achieve more through military means than through peaceful negotiations. A renewed offensive against Armenia in the coming months cannot be ruled out.
EU INTERVENTION?
With Armenia’s traditional security provider, Russia, unable or unwilling to help, the EU must play a greater role to preserve peace and stability in the region. European Council President Charles Michel and French President Emmanuel Macron have recognized this and devoted significant political capital to the issue. Following the renewed outbreak of hostilities in September, the EU dispatched a civilian mission to Armenia to monitor the border with Azerbaijan.
However, much more still needs to be done. The EU mission, which is deployed only on Armenian territory, should be rapidly scaled up to monitor the full length of the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. European leaders need to press Aliyev’s government to allow EU personnel on to Azerbaijani territory. Of course, an unarmed EU mission would not be able to stop hostilities, but scaling up its presence would put further pressure on Azerbaijan to choose negotiation over military confrontation.
Over the past year, the EU has built increasingly close economic ties with Azerbaijan, owing to its rapid shift away from Russian gas and oil. However, EU leaders need to be clear with Aliyev that he will not be allowed to act with impunity, and that Europe’s short-term commercial interests will not outweigh its values or its long-term interests in maintaining peace and stability in the South Caucasus.
If Azerbaijan continues to flout its international commitments and legally binding court orders from the ICJ, it must face political and economic consequences.
Armenia is an emerging democracy in an immensely challenging neighborhood. With Russia’s influence waning, Europe must play a bigger role in the region. This is not a form of charity. Acting now to prevent another significant conflict — or even ethnic cleansing — in our backyard is in everyone’s interest.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary-general and former prime minister of Denmark, is founder of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
On April 26, British Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs James Cleverly gave a speech on diplomatic strategy at Mansion House in London. He said that if a war broke out in the Taiwan Strait, it would not only become a human tragedy, but destroy global trade and the economy, which is worth US$2.6 trillion. He said that every year, half of the world’s container ships pass through the Taiwan Strait, emphasizing that Taiwan is a crucial point in the global supply chain, particularly its role in providing advanced semiconductors. If China invades Taiwan, it would be
A Beijing-based think tank last week published a poll showing that the majority of Chinese consider “international military intervention in Taiwan” one of the top threats facing China. Arguably, the sole purpose of the poll, which was conducted by the Tsinghua University Center for International Security and Strategy, is to serve as propaganda. A poll conducted in China, where freedom of speech is curtailed, cannot accurately reflect public opinion. Chinese would be reluctant to publicly express their true opinion, especially when it contradicts the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) narrative, as doing so would likely be construed as subversive behavior. RAND
China is demonstrating “growing aggressiveness” through repeated close encounters with US military aircraft and vessels, the White House said on Monday. A Chinese warship crossed 137m in front of a US destroyer in the Taiwan Strait on Saturday, and a Chinese jet crossed the path of a US reconnaissance plane as it was flying through international airspace on May 26. “The concern with these unsafe and unprofessional intercepts ... [is that] they can lead to misunderstandings, they can lead to miscalculations,” US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. Although China appeared to be expressing its displeasure with the US for
There is a worrisome trend toward militarization I observe in Taiwanese society, that I do not think has been commented on. The trend is broadly supported not only by the Taiwanese public and politicians, but by virtually every foreign commentator, politician and expert on Taiwan affairs. I see a vast militarization taking place in Taiwan, with all the negatives that can come with that. This can be seen not least in this newspaper, the Taipei Times, in which military acquisitions, preparedness and the acute danger of an imminent full-scale attack by China are splashed across page one and beyond in
RSS