China’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress, has given Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) a precedent-breaking third term in office. It also announced a national defense budget of 1.56 trillion yuan (US$226.6 billion) for this year, 7.2 percent more than last year. Taiwan should take this as reason to be more determined in the face of its authoritarian neighbor.
While calling for “peaceful unification,” China has increased its military budget by at least 6.6 percent every year for the past three decades, which has been perceived as being aimed at preparing for the annexation of Taiwan and domination of the Western Pacific amid a growing rivalry with the US.
Despite its GDP growth rate of 3 percent last year, China not only increased its national defense budget, but also raised its public security budget, which is used to maintain public order, to 6.4 percent — its biggest increase in five years. China has also reportedly doubled its public security budget in 10 years, surpassing the defense budget.
Yasuhiro Matsuda, professor of international politics at the University of Tokyo’s Institute for Advanced Studies on Asia, has said that these budget increases reveal China’s insecurity regarding international competition and domestic pressure. It is also a way for Xi to secure his leadership and divert domestic criticism of Beijing’s expansionist plans.
China has repeatedly said it wants to build a “world-class force” by 2047 to be the basis for Xi’s “Chinese Dream” and coincide with the 100th anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army. China’s ambitions and military assertiveness have led to speculation about an invasion of Taiwan and intensified disputes in the South China Sea, which are harmful to regional and international peace.
Taiwan increased its defense budget for this year to 2.4 percent of GDP. Taiwan is not aiming to compete with China’s military, but to focus on the development of the nation’s asymmetric combat capabilities for self-defense.
Beijing’s increases in military spending have resulted in more countries uniting against China. Taiwan should further develop this international counterforce to China’s military expansion to back it up in the event of an invasion.
Washington increased its military budget to US$773 billion for this year, and the Pentagon is reportedly asking for US$842 for next year, putting China at a distant second. The US has also passed bills, including the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2023, to grant Taiwan the same status as its major allies that are not members of NATO, such as Thailand and South Korea.
Japan raised its defense budget for this year to US$52 billion, and is seeking to increase it to 2 percent of GDP by 2027, which would give it the world’s third-largest defense budget. China’s launching of missiles into Japan’s territorial waters pushed Tokyo to bolster its military in line with former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s statement that a “Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency.”
Other international actors are also becoming more involved. The UK said it would permanently deploy two warships in Asia, and Germany sent a warship to the South China Sea for the first time in almost 20 years. After a record number of Chinese incursions in Phillipine waters, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr is granting the US greater military access to his country. These developments show that more countries are joining like-minded democratic nations to cooperate against the military threat posed by China.
No country should be engaged in an arms race, but to have peace, a nation must prepare for war. Russia’s setbacks in Ukraine should show China that any military invasion or blockade in the Taiwan Strait or elsewhere in Asia would definitely come at a huge cost.
Taiwan stands at the epicenter of a seismic shift that will determine the Indo-Pacific’s future security architecture. Whether deterrence prevails or collapses will reverberate far beyond the Taiwan Strait, fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics. The stakes could not be higher. Today, Taipei confronts an unprecedented convergence of threats from an increasingly muscular China that has intensified its multidimensional pressure campaign. Beijing’s strategy is comprehensive: military intimidation, diplomatic isolation, economic coercion, and sophisticated influence operations designed to fracture Taiwan’s democratic society from within. This challenge is magnified by Taiwan’s internal political divisions, which extend to fundamental questions about the island’s identity and future
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