In China, the “Blank Paper Movement” or the “A4 Revolution” is opposing the Chinese government’s COVID-19 policies, including endless testing for the virus and lockdowns.
Some participants have called for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) resignation, and because of this, some people have predicted that a situation similar to the Tiananmen Square Massacre might happen.
Others even suggested that Xi might attack Taiwan to divert attention if the movement keeps growing. These scenarios are imaginative, but mostly improbable.
Compared with Hong Kong’s 2019 anti-extradition protests, which drew 2 million participants, the unorganized “Blank Paper Movement” still has a long way to go. That it is happening in mainland China — rather than in a quasi-foreign territory like Hong Kong — allows the Chinese government to suppress it with ease.
Taiwanese must understand that if Taiwan were to be ruled by China, any opposition would be crushed. Taiwanese have to defend the nation’s safety, freedom of speech and democracy. This is a mission that they must undertake. They have to take the responsibility for the next generations.
The US Department of Defense has released its Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2022 report, which addresses a hypothetical Chinese invasion of Taiwan.
The report said that China lacks the capacity to carry out “an amphibious invasion of Taiwan,” but it would be capable of taking over Itu Aba Island (Taiping Island, 太平島), Pratas Island (Dongsha Island, 東沙島) and the islands of Kinmen and Lienchiang counties.
Reports from the US Department of Defense have made the same points over the past 15 years.
The two sides of the Taiwan Strait have maintained a military balance for years. Many Taiwanese are fearful of provoking China when reports say an invasion might occur soon.
Taiwanese should resist China and defend Taiwan, but some “local collaborators” have criticized such a stance, calling it as idiotic as the Boxer Rebellion.
Such tactics “might” provoke China and lead to war, they have said.
I wonder what they are thinking.
China is not capable of conducting an amphibious invasion — it would be suicidal for Beijing to wage war in the Taiwan Strait.
A failed operation would force Xi to step down, the Chinese Communist Party would die a horrible death and China could break apart.
Xi is not such an idiot that he would take that risk.
Chen Kuo-hsiung is a director of the Taiwan National Security Institute.
Translated by Liu Yi-hung
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