Pundits are speculating that the possibility of China invading Taiwan has increased after Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) was last week awarded a third term at the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), based on his pronouncements at the event.
Xi said that while Beijing would seek peaceful unification with Taiwan, it “will never promise to renounce the use of force,” while also warning against “interference by outside forces and the few separatists seeking Taiwan independence.”
An invasion might not happen in the next few weeks or months, but it would be uppermost in the mind of the Chinese leader and could possibly even take place in the next decade, as many soothsayers warn. Xi would still be in office, unless his health fails him or he is forcibly removed by rivals within the CCP, many of whom have been purged with his “anti-corruption” campaign.
Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd, a China expert who is president of the Asia Society, has said in television interviews that Xi has “good genes,” pointing to the longevity of Xi’s mother, who lived to be 96. Rudd has also said that the West needs to remain strong and unified on Taiwan to deter any possible invasion.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken voiced similar sentiment when he suggested that China was pursuing unification with Taiwan on a “much faster timeline” than previously thought, adding that Beijing considers the “status quo” no longer acceptable. Blinken was speaking during an event at Stanford University in California, which was also attended by former US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice.
Blinken said that having been unable to achieve unification with Taiwan through peaceful means, Beijing would turn to coercion and possibly force.
Some strategists caution that the West should not display toward China the same lackadaisical attitude shown prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, despite the early warning signals about Moscow’s intentions.
Russian President Vladimir Putin waited for a suitable time to strike at Ukraine when the US was mired in domestic affairs, such as the outcome of the 2020 presidential election, which former US president Donald Trump disputes, as well as US President Joe Biden’s hasty Afghanistan withdrawal.
These and other developments sent the wrong signals to Putin, who perceived that the US would not get involved with Ukraine.
Even assuming that Xi would not recklessly plunge China into a full-scale war that would also hit his own country hard — given its weakened economy, and the lessons it has drawn from Russia’s huge military and economic problems, as well as Moscow’s growing status as a pariah as it gets pulled deeper into a quagmire in Ukraine — Xi reinforced at the congress his intention to “reunite” Taiwan.
Xi is aware that invading Taiwan would be accompanied by high risks and a prolonged military conflict, turning international opinion not only against China, but also personally against himself. China’s economic success, and with it its world power status, could be jeopardized, and unlike Ukraine, Taiwan’s defense system is better organized and could pose a formidable military challenge.
Rorry Daniels, Asia Society Policy Institute managing director and senior fellow at the Center for China Analysis, said that Xi is “closely tracking the moves of support for Taiwan — whether that’s [US] congressional visits, presidential statements or other moves of support — and he’s prepared to respond in kind, including through the use of the military should he assess that US support has really crossed Beijing’s red line of enabling Taiwan independence.”
Xi’s assertion that China could annex Taiwan “without doubt” went down well with the 2,450 delegates who burst into loud applause, led by CCP hardliners who had been furious over US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August, which was seen as an affront to the party and, particularly, Xi.
The hardliners are also peeved by Biden’s commitment to defend Taiwan against any attack from China. This has intensified pressure on Xi to “look, talk and act tough,” which manifested in Chinese military drills close to Taiwan.
Xi also conspicuously did not make his standard pledge to respect the prevalent social system and way of life in Taiwan, an indicator that the Hong Kong-style “one country two systems” formula was off the table. Taiwanese have consistently rejected the framework, with growing aversion to China’s repressive governance in Hong Kong, reflected in the series of crackdowns on democratic institutions in the territory.
Having made subtle and not-so-subtle references to taking over Taiwan by force, Xi would lose face within the party and the entire country if he failed to keep his pledge. The party hardliners would be closely watching him and, as one Chinese American recently said, “will not wait long to draw out knives against him.”
Indeed, many expect the hardliners to arouse nationalist fervor to target Xi and his loyalists if the president does not live up to expectations about Taiwan’s annexation raised in his speech.
The military option, which could be the ultimate move because of the devastating implications it could have on China’s economy, could be preceded by other options, such as exercising diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan’s friends and allies, who could face economic and trade coercion, while foreign corporations would be forced to limit or even boycott Taiwan-made products, thus isolating the country.
In such circumstances, any signs of dissension in a Western alliance could send China the wrong signals. The Chinese leadership would not miss any opportunity to drive a wedge in such an alliance, as is evident from a high-powered business delegation German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is leading to China next week, becoming the first G7 leader to visit Beijing since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Scholz visit, coming amid fierce criticism over China’s persecution of Uighurs in Xinjiang, has been criticized not only by Western allies, but also human rights advocates and the Greens, a junior partner of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party in Berlin’s coalition government.
The West needs to present a unified front against China’s adventurism, which could have repercussions not only for Taiwan, but also Japan and other nations in the region. Deterrence is the key factor here.
Manik Mehta is a New York-based journalist specializing on foreign affairs, diplomacy, global trade and economics.
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