A possible trip to Taiwan by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi might be shelved to put Washington in a better position during dialogue with Beijing, a Taiwanese researcher said on Monday.
US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) have planned to speak ahead of the Chinese Communist Party’s National People’s Congress and the Biden administration feels it would be in a better position in such talks if it shelved Pelosi’s plan, Formosa TV said, citing National Chengchi University professor Arthur Ding (丁樹範).
Chinese officials have made threats seemingly aimed at the US, saying Beijing would take action if Pelosi made the trip, without specifying what those actions would be.
Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian (趙立堅) on Monday said that Beijing would respond with “firm and resolute measures,” while Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesman Tan Kefei (譚克非) on Tuesday said that “the Chinese military will never sit idle and will take strong measures to thwart any external interference” in Taiwan.
China routinely makes such threats and it intentionally remains ambiguous to avoid losing face when it fails to follow through, but some have speculated that the US was taking the threats seriously.
Biden on Wednesday last week said of the possible Pelosi trip that the US military thought it was “not a good idea right now.”
“Maybe the military was afraid our plane would get shot down or something like that by the Chinese,” Pelosi told a news conference the next day.
Those comments are most likely meant to deflect questions about the trip. It is exceedingly unlikely that the Chinese military would shoot down a US military plane carrying a high-level official, which would unavoidably draw the two countries into a war. It is unlikely that the US is afraid of such a contingency, as it should be confident in its ability to protect an aircraft carrying a US official.
The Associated Press yesterday quoted US General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, as saying that “if there’s a decision made that Speaker Pelosi or anyone else is going to travel and they asked for military support, we will do what is necessary to ensure a safe conduct of their visit.”
The article discussed a more likely scenario than a Chinese attack on Pelosi’s plane: a miscalculation. This could arise from China reacting to an increased US military presence in the region to protect Pelosi, or it could be an accident resulting from a Chinese show of force.
On Wednesday last week, Hu Xijin (胡錫進), former editor-in-chief of Chinese tabloid the Global Times, wrote on Twitter that Chinese military aircraft should “accompany Pelosi’s plane to enter the island, making a historic crossing of the island by military aircraft from mainland for the 1st time.”
It is not unlikely that Beijing would send aircraft to buzz Pelosi’s plane, as China regularly engages in this type of dangerous and irresponsible behavior.
There might be some risk of a mishap if Pelosi visits Taiwan, but the alternative is for China to be emboldened by dictating the movements of US officials. China’s approach is always to engage in gray-zone tactics and to push the boundaries. It is imperative that the US sends a clear message to China that it will not be coerced.
Some US senators have encouraged Pelosi to not only continue with her travel plans, but to go further and push for the outdated “one China” policy to be scrapped.
The US must remain firm in its resolve to maintain normal relations with Taiwan, or with whoever else it pleases, while Taipei should do what it can to encourage the trip.
Taiwan stands at the epicenter of a seismic shift that will determine the Indo-Pacific’s future security architecture. Whether deterrence prevails or collapses will reverberate far beyond the Taiwan Strait, fundamentally reshaping global power dynamics. The stakes could not be higher. Today, Taipei confronts an unprecedented convergence of threats from an increasingly muscular China that has intensified its multidimensional pressure campaign. Beijing’s strategy is comprehensive: military intimidation, diplomatic isolation, economic coercion, and sophisticated influence operations designed to fracture Taiwan’s democratic society from within. This challenge is magnified by Taiwan’s internal political divisions, which extend to fundamental questions about the island’s identity and future
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