With the war in Ukraine, we have seen a shift in how the West’s strategic ambiguity posture might affect geopolitical outcomes.
Ambiguity might have its value in confusing the enemy into how the US would respond to any acts of aggression against its partners, but the Ukraine invasion shows that the concept of ambiguity also has its limits.
Leaders like Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) and Russian President Vladimir Putin have taken advantage of US foreign policy over the past few years, including Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, its invasion of Ukraine through supposed proxy forces, and China’s military buildup and encroachment in the South China Sea.
The establishment of a strong and clear-eyed messaging system is needed to restore the conceptual credibility of deterrence in order to assure democratic allies and partners that the US truly believes in the free and liberal international order.
There is still hope to project a real deterrence strategy to protect free states, including Taiwan, but the strategy must encompass the utilization of a full suite of tools that ensure the establishment of economic alliances, along with meaningful displays of soft, hard and sharp power.
As we have learned, authoritarian elites such as Xi and Putin respond to power and firm resolve, not blanket statements without substance. It is imperative that the US and its partners finally embrace the reality of the current state of affairs — authoritarianism must be checked with the collective power of the free world.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would result in a loss of free Asia’s strategic assets in the first island chain, ultimately threatening the balance of power throughout East and Southeast Asia. From the perspective of the US’ allies and partners in the region, China’s ambitions for regional hegemony would be advanced to a trajectory that would be nearly impossible to reverse.
China recently tested a new hypersonic missile that sent shock waves throughout the US intelligence community, as it was the first instance of a ballistic missile flying across the globe that the US could not identify until it was too late.
Western defenses, at this moment, cannot stop that type of weapon from reaching its target and as a result, any incursion into Taiwan places the region into a hostage-like situation of dizzying diplomacy vis-a-vis China’s imperial ambitions in the South China Sea, and the first and second island chains.
US deployments of its THAAD defense system in South Korea have been essentially rendered useless in the face of these new Chinese weapons.
A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would also have huge implications for the global semiconductor industry, which powers every modern economy. China’s disastrous incursion would cut off valuable technological assets and human capital that have benefited the progression of free societies in the modern era.
A scenario in which a communist dictatorship controls trade flows, the security environment and political narrative in the most important region on the planet would mean the end of sovereignty, autonomy, and most importantly, freedom of thought for every individual in the region.
Therefore, the US must adopt a serious defense plan for Taiwan into its strategic framework. This plan should include US support for bolstering Taiwan’s economic and political status in the Indo-Pacific region, increasing the attractiveness of investment in Taiwan and encouraging Western allies to adopt stronger measures of military support to Taiwan.
Another less often discussed issue about the benefit of Taiwan’s inclusion in the international order is the potential for it to play a unifying role in tensions between Japan and South Korea. US support for bolstering Taiwan’s status and position might enable Taipei to take on the role of regional arbitrator between Japan and South Korea, if it so chooses.
Taiwan’s unique bilateral relations with both nations could potentially advance a regional order more united against authoritarian tendencies, while acknowledging the historical intricacies important to both Japan and South Korea. In fact, Taiwan is the only nation that can both mount a “united front” against China’s hegemonic aggression and unify Asia at this moment.
All this talk, and what to do?
Well, immediate prescriptions are necessary to ensure the survival of Taiwan’s sovereignty.
First and foremost, Taiwan must overcome its institutional hurdles and increase its defense spending and related training on asymmetric weaponry capable of countering China’s rapid deployment of advanced systems, such as hypersonic missiles.
President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) administration has been rightly advocating for the adoption of modern equipment that enhances Taiwan’s “porcupine” strategy in the face of a Chinese invasion, yet the military establishment continues to endorse fielding expensive conventional systems that do not provide the nation with a distinct battlefield edge.
The US must also implement the terms of its 2018 Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific and its 2018 National Defense Strategy. These frameworks are still the best chance for US military and economic assurance for the region.
The West must also expend its global political capital and lobbying efforts for greater inclusion of Taiwan in international and regional organizations, such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, observer status at the WHO’s World Health Assembly (WHA), the International Telecommunication Union and other UN agencies, as well as global standards setting communities such as the International Organization for Standardization.
To shut out Taiwan from the WHA in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic was a critical failure by the free world, as the nation could have provided sound data to better combat the virus. The US and its partners must also overcome the fear of China’s thinly veiled threats and welcome increased movement of diplomatic travel and bilateral engagement with the nation, while not solely relying on second-track academic and post-government officials.
This engagement strategy would allow Taiwan to bolster its economic and security posture bilaterally with partners in the face of a stagnant and sclerotic multilateral environment deadlocked by Beijing’s veto powers. The greater Taiwan’s inclusion in the global economic and security order, the greater consequences Beijing must consider if it moves forward with an invasion.
There is prominent and ill-advised consensus among the foreign policy community that we live in a liberal world order, and authoritarianism is just an inconvenient cancer that takes root in times of instability. However, this was never a reality.
Free societies have always been required to fight for their existence in the face of the human tendency to absorb power at all costs. Democratic nations have always been fragile, and under assault by domestic and foreign actors.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an exemplary reminder that authoritarianism is alive and well, and its axis remains keen on advancing its ideological and geopolitical goals.
Authoritarian states typically view the world through a zero-sum prism, and that is especially the case in China’s foreign policy. The West has grown comfortable assuming that diplomacy could in fact yield China’s concept of “win-win cooperation.” However, as every authoritative source has shown us in recent years, China intends to be the only winner.
Taiwan remains a bellwether for the future of free societies and it is high time we take its destiny seriously.
M. Roberts is a national security analyst focusing primarily on East Asian and Eurasian affairs for the US government.
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