A surge in cases of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 indicates that the COVID-19 pandemic is nearing its end, as the coronavirus has evolved to be highly infectious and less pathogenic.
The number of local Omicron cases this year reached 3,098 as of April 8, almost all of which were mild or asymptomatic, Central Epidemic Command Center data showed. Among those cases, only 10 were classified as severe, accounting for about 0.32 percent of the total, while two people — who were in their 70s and 80s — died, accounting for about 0.06 percent of the total.
Data from Hong Kong’s Omicron outbreak showed that about 96 percent of those who died were aged 60 or older. The death rate in the territory was as high as 9.7 percent among those older than 80, and as low as 0.01 percent among those younger than 40. Seventy percent of older Hong Kongers who died from the disease were not vaccinated against COVID-19, while 20 percent had only one shot, 10 percent had two and only 0.01 percent had received a booster shot. It is therefore evident that vaccinations can reduce the risk of serious illness or death from COVID-19.
It is clear from the Hong Kong data that epidemic prevention efforts should focus on vaccinating older and at-risk people, and not on a “zero COVID-19” policy. The government should shift from attempting to prevent all infections to trying to reduce the number of serious cases and deaths, and from reducing infections among young people to reducing them among older people.
The reason the UK opened up entirely is that at least 97 percent of its population, regardless of age, have COVID-19 antibodies. Some developed antibodies after being infected with the disease, but the high levels among older people is mostly a result of them receiving three vaccine doses.
However, in Taiwan, the vaccination rate among older people is lower than that of young people, particularly for those who are older than 75. Even though this group has the highest death rate from COVID-19, they have the lowest vaccination rate, and 30 percent of them have not yet received a second dose, let alone a booster shot.
Taiwan should not relax all restrictions at this stage, nor should it abolish its health management measures, but it should increase the vaccination rate among older people and those with chronic diseases. It should try to lift the second-dose vaccination rate to at least 95 percent as soon as possible, followed by a booster shot.
An estimated 4 million Taiwanese are older than 65. If 18 percent still need a first shot and 22 percent their second dose, about 1.6 million of them would need to be inoculated within a short period of time. As many of them are unable to travel easily, the central government should provide funding for local agencies to recruit current and retired medical workers to collaborate with borough wardens and neighborhood chiefs to provide in-home vaccinations nationwide.
If the government pays each of these medical workers NT$300 (US$10.30) to inoculate and provide COVID-19 health education to older Taiwanese, the total cost of such a program would be about NT$480 million. Through such an initiative, the first-dose vaccination rate among older people would approach 100 percent within a month. In-home vaccinations would surely reduce severe cases of COVID-19 and deaths from the disease significantly, while preventing the medical system from becoming overburdened. Then, Taiwan could truly start opening up.
Twu Shiing-jer is a former director-general of the Department of Health (now known as the Ministry of Health and Welfare).
Translated by Eddy Chang
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