A new year has started, bringing new aspirations for the months ahead. As people consider their personal resolutions, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) outlined those she envisions for the nation in her New Year’s Day address on Saturday.
Taiwan, in these early days of the year, finds itself in an enviable position. Economic growth last year likely reached an 11-year high, as the nation rocketed back into the ranks of the top 20 world economies. People were able to gather in the drizzle to watch the Taipei 101 fireworks even as a new Omicron-led wave of the COVID-19 pandemic surges across the globe.
Yet obstacles will of course arise, even if the world hopes for the resumption of normalcy after two challenging years.
In Tsai’s view, the main issues facing Taiwan are inflation, property prices and the potential of another outbreak. While the first two issues received much of the president’s attention in her speech, the third was conspicuously absent. Compared with last year’s address, when Tsai praised at length the successful COVID-19 policies that allowed a “normal lifestyle” to continue, little was mentioned beyond the “several months made particularly turbulent by the pandemic.”
Where some might have been seeking an indication that Taiwan is preparing to open up, there was little hope to be found. “COVID-zero” has been and remains an attractive domestic policy, especially with local elections scheduled at the end of the year, and as the economy surges onward little deterred and Omicron uncertainties abound.
People remain more concerned about other issues, foremost among them inflation, housing and social support. Tsai was ready to assuage these fears, dedicating ample time in her speech to touting price controls, wage increases, social housing progress, rent subsidies and support for families.
While she mentioned many of these policies last year as well, they did not take as much of the focus, indicating that after two years of COVID-19 dominating the airwaves, Tsai and her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) appear poised to shift their rhetoric toward other issues.
These were summarized in Tsai’s “four pillars for stable governance” this year, which apart from strengthening the social security network, also include continuing global engagement, maintaining economic momentum and safeguarding national sovereignty.
Making progress in the Taiwan-US Trade and Investment Framework Agreement and joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership received specific mentions, as did deepening New Southbound Policy cooperation and European ties on the heels of a good year for bilateral engagement.
However, most international headlines focused on Tsai’s emphasis on peace in the Taiwan Strait, a slight change from last year’s accusations of Chinese destabilization and appeals for dialogue. This tonal shift is not unprecedented, considering rising concern over the past year that conflict is more likely than ever. However, she also refrained from using the term “Republic of China” in favor of “Taiwan,” which has not gone unnoticed.
Yet if anything should set the tone for this year, it is Tsai’s assertion of Taiwan’s democratic credentials at the top of her address. Praising last month’s referendum as a mark of a mature civil society, she emphasized that “when we come together and have faith in our democratic institutions, Taiwan can overcome any challenge.”
This was likely a veiled response to dangerous Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) accusations that the DPP has a totalitarian grip over Taiwan. Yet maintaining faith in the democratic process remains more important than ever, especially as local elections and constitutional reform take the stage, not to mention the real authoritarian threat looming across the Strait.
With a Taiwan contingency increasingly more plausible, Taiwanese lobbies in Japan are calling for the government to pass a version of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), emulating the US precedent. Such a measure would surely enable Tokyo to make formal and regular contact with Taipei for dialogue, consultation, policy coordination and planning in military security. This would fill the missing link of the trilateral US-Japan-Taiwan security ties, rendering a US military defense of Taiwan more feasible through the support of the US-Japan alliance. Yet, particular caution should be exercised, as Beijing would probably view the move as a serious challenge to
As the Soviet Union was collapsing in the late 1980s and Russia seemed to be starting the process of democratization, 36-year-old US academic Francis Fukuyama had the audacity to assert that the world was at the “end of history.” Fukuyama claimed that democratic systems would become the norm, and peace would prevail the world over. He published a grandiose essay, “The End of History?” in the summer 1989 edition of the journal National Interest. Overnight, Fukuyama became a famous theorist in the US, western Europe, Japan and even Taiwan. Did the collapse of the Soviet Union mark the end of an era as
During a news conference with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo on Monday, US President Joe Biden for the third time intimated that the US would take direct military action to defend Taiwan should China attack. Responding to a question from a reporter — Would Washington be willing to get involved militarily to defend Taiwan? — Biden replied with an unequivocal “Yes.” As per Biden’s previous deviations from the script of the US’ longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” — maintaining a deliberately nebulous position over whether the US would intervene militarily in the event of a conflagration between Taiwan and
Will the US come to the defense of Taiwan if and when China makes its move? Like most friends of Taiwan, I’ve been saying “yes” for a couple decades. But the truth is that none of us, in or out of government, really know. This is precisely why we all need to show humility in our advice on how Taiwan should prepare itself for such an eventuality. After all, it’s their country, and they have no choice but to live with the consequences. A couple weeks ago the New York Times published an article that put this reality in stark relief. As