Many countries have expressed concerns over security in the Taiwan Strait, but neither China’s threats nor the government’s warnings seem to affect most Taiwanese.
Ministry of National Defense data show that from Friday last week to Tuesday, China’s military sent a total of 150 aircraft into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), and many countries, especially the US and Japan, have said they are concerned about China endangering cross-strait stability.
Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) on Wednesday described the security situation in the Strait as the tensest in 40 years, citing the surge in incursions by Chinese aircraft. Previous crises, such as in 1976 or 1996, mainly affected Taiwan’s outlying islands, while posing less of a threat to Taiwan proper, he said.
On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that a contingent of 20 US special operations and conventional forces have been training Taiwanese troops in Taiwan, with The Economist the next day largely confirming the report.
Despite increasing signs of heightened cross-strait tensions, it is unclear how Taiwanese should react. So far, Taiwan’s economy, including commercial airlines, have remained unaffected. Most people seem to care more about COVID-19 vaccines and the Quintuple Stimulus Vouchers. Few, if any, are talking about migrating, or even evacuating, in the face of China’s threats.
It is as if Taiwan were split into two parallel worlds: one dominated by politicians’ warnings and media reports — about Chinese actions, how the US might respond and statements by foreign officials — and the other inhabited by people who pay limited attention to those issues.
If the aircraft incursions are a sign of an impending Chinese invasion of Taiwan, why did their number not increase exponentially, but only gradually, with larger numbers crossing into the ADIZ around symbolic dates? Why did the incursions occur near the South China Sea, rather than closer to Taipei? Should Taiwan continue to place itself, or be placed, in the center of an international discourse about China’s military actions?
Asking these questions does not amount to downplaying China’s military threat to Taiwan. Beijing has never hidden its intention to annex the nation.
However, to avoid seeing China’s deployments through a distorted lens, the focus of the discussion should be widened.
In an opinion article on Tuesday, strategy researcher Chang Ching (張競) wrote that Chinese aircraft flying near Taiwan have not conducted any tactical maneuvers beyond basic flight training. Chang said that finding political explanations behind every Chinese aircraft deployment is not feasible and that the government only publicizes Chinese aircraft movements, while not regularly reporting those of aircraft or vessels of other nations’ militaries.
Asked if a cross-strait war is imminent, Su Tzu-yun (蘇紫雲), a defense analyst at the state-funded Institute for National Defense and Security Research, said that China is more likely only flexing its muscles to test its strength and for domestic propaganda, Deutsche Welle’s Chinese-language service reported on Friday. Commenting on Chiu’s statement, Su said that the defense minister’s warning, based on a rigorous risk assessment, is more effective in reaching elites. Despite bearing the warning in mind, ordinary Taiwanese might continue to appear relaxed, Su added.
The government should rethink its strategy on informing the public about security threats. If its warnings are aimed at garnering public support for plans to increase military spending, it should be careful about the information it releases.
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has long been expansionist and contemptuous of international law. Under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), the CCP regime has become more despotic, coercive and punitive. As part of its strategy to annex Taiwan, Beijing has sought to erase the island democracy’s international identity by bribing countries to sever diplomatic ties with Taipei. One by one, China has peeled away Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic partners, leaving just 12 countries (mostly small developing states) and the Vatican recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign nation. Taiwan’s formal international space has shrunk dramatically. Yet even as Beijing has scored diplomatic successes, its overreach
For Taiwan, the ongoing US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets are a warning signal: When a major power stretches the boundaries of self-defense, smaller states feel the tremors first. Taiwan’s security rests on two pillars: US deterrence and the credibility of international law. The first deters coercion from China. The second legitimizes Taiwan’s place in the international community. One is material. The other is moral. Both are indispensable. Under the UN Charter, force is lawful only in response to an armed attack or with UN Security Council authorization. Even pre-emptive self-defense — long debated — requires a demonstrably imminent
Since being re-elected, US President Donald Trump has consistently taken concrete action to counter China and to safeguard the interests of the US and other democratic nations. The attacks on Iran, the earlier capture of deposed of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and efforts to remove Chinese influence from the Panama Canal all demonstrate that, as tensions with Beijing intensify, Washington has adopted a hardline stance aimed at weakening its power. Iran and Venezuela are important allies and major oil suppliers of China, and the US has effectively decapitated both. The US has continuously strengthened its military presence in the Philippines. Japanese Prime
After “Operation Absolute Resolve” to capture former Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, the US joined Israel on Saturday last week in launching “Operation Epic Fury” to remove Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his theocratic regime leadership team. The two blitzes are widely believed to be a prelude to US President Donald Trump changing the geopolitical landscape in the Indo-Pacific region, targeting China’s rise. In the National Security Strategic report released in December last year, the Trump administration made it clear that the US would focus on “restoring American pre-eminence in the Western hemisphere,” and “competing with China economically and militarily
RSS