On June 13, a US military C-17 Globemaster strategic transport aircraft touched down at Taipei International Airport (Songshan airport) with a delegation of US senators bearing tidings of good news. It was a high-profile show of strength and support by the US for its ally Taiwan.
On Monday, in Kabul, a US military C-17 was again front and center, but this time under circumstances that could not have been more different. Footage of Afghans desperately attempting to escape the Taliban by clinging to the plane as it lumbered down the runway at Hamid Karzai International Airport is already seared into the collective memory of a generation.
After two decades of effort, the expenditure of trillions of US dollars and the loss of thousands of American lives, US President Joe Biden called time on a war that was started to capture the architects of the Sept. 11, 2001, terror attacks, but morphed into an unworkable nation-building quagmire and became a classic case of “mission creep.”
The fall of Kabul has already been likened to the fall of Saigon in 1975, but it is probably far more serious. In the short term, with thousands of US nationals still stranded behind Taliban checkpoints, it might yet come to resemble the 1979 Iran hostage crisis.
Western allies with a presence in Afghanistan who fought alongside the US complain that they were not consulted and say they warned Washington that a precipitous exit would spell disaster.
The retreat from Afghanistan is also a visible manifestation of Washington’s removal of the post-World War II US defense umbrella from Europe and the Middle East to reduce military overstretch and refocus resources in the Indo-Pacific region.
On paper, this should bode well for Taiwan, which has been a primary beneficiary of Washington’s tilt to the Asia-Pacific. Nevertheless, recent reassurances that the US’ commitment to Taiwan is “rock solid” might be insufficient after watching events unfold in Kabul.
Despite Taiwan’s increased geostrategic currency, some are now asking whether the nation might once again be deemed expendable by a future US administration.
Afghanistan has certainly helped Beijing to spin a narrative that the US betrays its allies when it is politically expedient and quits when the going gets tough. Chinese propaganda points to former US presidents and their foreign policies — South Vietnam and Taiwan when Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter were in office, Egypt under Barack Obama and the Syrian Kurds under Donald Trump — as examples of the US’ perfidy.
Since the end of the Cold War, Washington has favored costly foreign interventions and nation building, but the model of nation building has run its course, while the US public has become weary and no longer wishes to support an “imperial burden.”
Fortunately for Taiwan, the US is returning to the concept of short, sharp interventions. A navy and air force-led campaign to assist Taiwan in repelling a Chinese invasion would be bread and butter for the US foreign policy establishment, as long as US casualties can be kept low.
The situation in Afghanistan is deeply regrettable, but predictions of a new era of US isolationism or the abandonment of Taiwan are premature. Nevertheless, trust is a precious commodity. Once lost, it is not easily regained.
Washington must do everything it can to reassure Taiwan and its other allies that it is still a good partner.
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