The regime responsible for covering up the COVID-19 outbreak has its sights set on conquering Taiwan and then the world. What new steps might Washington and Taipei take in 2021 to keep Beijing at bay?
Early this December, as the chill of winter spread across the northern hemisphere, a somber new milestone was reached: over 1.5 million people killed by the COVID-19 pandemic, with one life reported lost every nine seconds.
In spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) continues to deny any responsibility for the global catastrophe. The regime has strained every nerve and spared no effort to deny that the virus originated in the People’s Republic of China (PRC, China).
Many democracies have withered under the glare of the Chinese government. They remain silent about the pandemic cover-up. Not surprisingly, they also say little and do less about the CCP’s other contemporaneous crimes: the genocide in Xinjiang; the atrocities in Tibet; the assimilation of Hong Kong into China’s Orwellian police state; the weaponization of outer space and cyberspace; the undermining of international maritime law and global trade regimes; and the mass proliferation of killer fentanyl.
There are two countries who refuse to be cowed: The United States and the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan). Look to their remarkable records, and you will see they remain outspoken about the dangers associated with the totalitarian regime in China.
In a recent article, U.S. Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe wrote, “The intelligence is clear: Beijing intends to dominate the U.S. and the rest of the planet economically, militarily and technologically. Many of China’s major public initiatives and prominent companies offer only a layer of camouflage to the activities of the Chinese Communist Party.”
Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu (吳釗燮), similarly warned that Xi Jinping (習近平) and his lieutenants are expansionistic. Taiwan is their first target, but it won’t be their last. In an interview with The Guardian newspaper, Minister Wu said, “If one of the most critical junctures of the first island chain is not in the hands of the like-minded countries, we can imagine what this is going to create in the global strategic picture.”
Responsible authorities in the United States and Taiwan, then, know they have a lot of hard work ahead. They cannot wait for the pandemic to be over before focusing on this mammoth threat. So what are they doing, and what more can be done? Let’s start with Taiwan.
According to Lee Hsi-min (李喜明) and Eric Lee, Taiwan has begun to self-strengthen in a way that could both stymie Beijing’s revanchist plans and tighten links with the United States. In an article entitled, “Taiwan’s Overall Defense Concept, Explained,” the authors describe how Taipei is grappling with the changing environment by making needed reforms.
Not long ago, Taiwan’s armed forces enjoyed excellent odds in a head-to-head fight against the Chinese navy and air force, making the specter of an actual invasion nothing more than a figment of the CCP’s imagination. Those glory days are gone. Over the past decade, China has invested staggering sums into its armaments complex, tipping the balance of military power away from Taiwan. The Chinese invasion threat is now real, and it’s on track to get much worse in the years ahead.
The Overall Defense Concept, designed by Lee Hsi-min during his tenure as Chief of the General Staff (Taiwan’s top uniformed warfighter), is clear-eyed and pragmatic. Focused on making Taiwan’s military far more survivable and lethal, the Overall Defense Concept has been welcomed with acclaim in both Taipei and Washington.
The aim of the concept is to make the best of a terrible strategic situation. It is premised on the need to overcome a number of profound challenges. One, Taiwan is politically isolated and militarily overmatched. Two, Taiwan is unable to maintain a large standing army. Three, Taiwan cannot spend its way out of its defense problems due to limited budgets. Four, Taiwan’s military technology is falling behind. Five, Taiwan’s defenders are increasingly forced to limit the scope of the battlefield as their options for striking the enemy’s center of gravity shrink.
The result? A future war could be decided nearby (or even inside) Taiwan’s major population centers.
The Overall Defense Concept offers a rational response: Taiwan’s armed forces must focus on blunting a potential invasion using defensive measures that can be deployed quickly, easily, and in vast numbers. By acknowledging the severity of the situation, marshaling every resource available, and acting with an unprecedented sense of urgency, the Taiwanese military can more effectively defend their country.
There is no doubt the Overall Defense Concept has great merit for an invasion scenario. However, it cannot serve as a substitute for the missing pieces on the higher plane of political and strategic affairs.
What is Taiwan’s national security strategy? What is Taiwan’s theory of deterrence? What is Taiwan’s theory of victory? How can Taiwan defeat the Chinese Communist Party’s dark arts of political warfare, nuclear blackmail, and subversion? So far, no one has an answer for these questions, in part because no one knows with any certainty what the United States is prepared to do. The trouble with Washington’s long-standing policy of strategic ambiguity is that it leaves everyone suspended in limbo.
While it is true that US-Taiwan relations are still wrapped in a cloak of secrecy for reasons of political expediency, it is also true they are no longer a paradigm of diplomatic minimalism. Fewer difficult decisions than ever are being deferred for fear of CCP reaction, and there is a broad and open field ahead for making progress.
Randall Schriver recently published a “Memo to the Next President,” urging the incoming Biden Administration to assist Taiwan to implement its Overall Defense Concept and take steps to integrate Taiwan into the US security architecture for the Indo-Pacific. His recommendations for President-elect Biden include engaging in bilateral US-Taiwan defense exercises, establishing a program for routine ship visits to Taiwan starting with submarines and destroyers, and building up the presence of American forces in Taiwan for intensive liaison, training, and advisory missions.
If ever there was a time for such bold and innovative moves, it’s now. The COVID-19 pandemic serves as a stark reminder that strategic shock is a fact of life. We live in an imperfect, unpredictable, and dangerous world. And the power and influence of the Chinese Communist Party is making dark realities darker.
By working closer together in the year ahead, the US and Taiwan can halt Communist China’s expansion and keep the most explosive flashpoint on the planet from igniting.
The entire world will be better for it.
Ian Easton is Senior Director at the Project 2049 Institute and author of The Chinese Invasion Threat.
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