US president-elect Joe Biden’s victory initially raised concerns among Taiwanese banking on a continuation of US President Donald Trump’s pro-Taiwan policies and willingness to take the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to task.
Consistency between US administrations is crucial for stability in many areas, not least across the Taiwan Strait. Remarks by former US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs Kurt Campbell via videoconference at the Taiwan-US-Japan Trilateral Indo-Pacific Security Dialogue forum in Taipei on Tuesday addressed this.
Campbell said that Biden would reach across the aisle at home, although there is no lack of consensus on the need for a pushback against the CCP, and would be aware the world is different from when he was former US president Barack Obama’s vice president.
Awareness of Taiwan’s strategic importance is more developed now than 25 years ago, because of the academic and strategic interest in, and a shift in the center of US foreign policy from the Middle East to Asia, Campbell said.
He also offered assurances that the US would stand by its promises to protect Taiwan, and said that he believed Biden would build upon the good work of the Trump administration in terms of bolstering exchanges with Taiwan.
If US policy on Taiwan has lacked consistency in the past, it is because of uncertainty over the CCP’s intentions and how China would develop. Would the CCP accede to pressure to democratize? Would it become a reliable member of the international community? Over the past decade it has become apparent that neither of these will happen.
Despite Trump’s oft-vaunted isolationist “America first” approach, the US has consistently been America first. As former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger once said: “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.”
That does not mean that Trump does not see the value in coalitions. It was he who showed interest in resurrecting the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, the informal strategic forum between Australia, India, Japan and the US initially proposed by then-Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe and pursued under Trump’s direction by US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as a forum well-placed to discuss how to curtail China’s more assertive proclivities.
Taiwan enjoyed considerable support from Abe. Fortunately, his successor, Yoshihide Suga, was Abe’s right-hand man, and there are signs that he will continue to be friendly with Taiwan. During Tuesday’s forum, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) referred to the Japan-Taiwan Exchange Association naming next year “Japan-Taiwan Friendship Year.”
Taiwan has a different political culture to the US and, unlike Japan with its remarkably stable political climate, Taiwan has had frequent transitions of power between political parties with widely different agendas and worldviews.
Former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) distanced himself from the US, preferring increased engagement with China. Since 2016, Tsai has moved in the opposite direction, with far closer alignment with the US and working toward more engagement in the Indo-Pacific region, in addition to desinicizing Taiwan’s culture. She has emphasized the relationship with Japan, and jumped at Czech politicians’ friendly overtures.
The KMT, which continues to show signs of antipathy toward the US and Japan — most recently with its robust protests and populist appeals against importing US pork and food from Japan that it claims is still contaminated with radiation — could swing that pendulum back if it returns to power, as it likely could.
The commitment to a joint security vision by Taiwan, Japan and the US, whether it be because of friendship, shared values or realpolitik, is strong. A KMT administration would be the weak link.
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